HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints23 September 2026, Wednesday
Russia's Krasnodar region declares a state of emergency over attacks on Black Sea ports: 90% of grain export capacity was knocked out in August
On 23 September Krasnodar Governor Kondratyev signed an emergency decree backdated to 12 August. Analysts say Ukraine's drone and missile strikes in August knocked out 90% of the region's grain export capacity; a record 11.4-million-tonne harvest is piling up at home. The Kremlin said contacts on Türkiye's safe grain passage proposal were continuing.
According to a report by The Moscow Times dated 24 September, Governor Veniamin Kondratyev backdated the entry into force of the state of emergency decree he signed on Wednesday (23 September) to 12 August, citing mass attacks on logistics facilities, the suspension of port operations and disrupted shipping in the Azov–Black Sea basin. According to the same report, the August attacks knocked out around 90% of Russian grain export capacity in the region. According to a Reuters report published by ThePrint, Krasnodar harvested 11.4 million tonnes of grain and pulses this year, around 2 million tonnes more than in 2025.
According to the Reuters report in ThePrint, the Kremlin said diplomatic contacts were continuing on Türkiye's proposal for the safe passage of grain in the Black Sea and that alternative export routes existed in the meantime; Russia withdrew in 2023 from the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative. According to The Moscow Times, Russia is converting fertiliser and coal terminals at Baltic and Arctic ports to handle grain arriving by rail from the south. According to the same report, US Secretary of State Rubio said after his meeting with Lavrov on 23 September that both sides had shown interest in a limited ceasefire covering grain and energy targets. Daily shipment figures from Novorossiysk could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Reciprocal attacks on ports and ships in the Black Sea are now locking up both countries' grain exports: on the Russian side 90% of capacity is out of action, and on the Ukrainian side port traffic has fallen sharply since July. This symmetry gives both parties a concrete common interest in Türkiye's safe passage proposal and in the US search for a grain–energy ceasefire; however, there is as yet no written mechanism.
Likely effects
- Global wheat supplyNegativeWeeks
A 90% capacity loss in Russia's main southern export region creates upward pressure on global wheat prices in the new season.
- TürkiyePositive1–6 months
If the proposal, which renews Türkiye's role in the 2022 grain initiative, is accepted, Istanbul would regain its position as mediator and inspection centre; supply risk for the flour industry would also ease.
- Russian farmersNegative1–6 months
The 11.4-million-tonne harvest piling up on the domestic market is depressing local prices; according to the Central Bank, this could also shrink next year's sown area.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Partial corridor agreement45%
A limited ceasefire covering grain ships and ports takes effect within 4–8 weeks through Turkish and US mediation.
Watch: Formal approval of Türkiye's proposal from the Kremlin and Kyiv, or a technical meeting in Istanbul
- 2Attacks continue40%
Reciprocal port attacks continue, Russia shifts exports to Baltic and rail routes, and shipment volumes remain low.
Watch: New drone attacks on the ports of Novorossiysk and Taman
- 3Escalation15%
Attacks on commercial shipping widen, Black Sea insurance premiums jump and traffic through the Turkish Straits is affected.
Watch: A sudden rise in Black Sea war-risk insurance premiums
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Regional export capacity▼ −90%
- Krasnodar harvest▲ 11.4 million tonnes
- Harvest increase (vs 2025)▲ ~2 million tonnes