MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints26 September 2026, Saturday
Libya's NOC shuts a unit at the 120,000-barrel Zawiya refinery as the Sharara line stays closed; 5-day loss 942,376 barrels, damage about 95 million dollars
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on 26 September it had shut one unit at the Zawiya refinery because armed groups affiliated with the Petroleum Facilities Guard were forcibly keeping the Sharara crude pipeline valve closed. According to NOC data, the cumulative production loss over the 5 days to Friday 25 September reached 942,376 barrels and direct damage about 95 million dollars.
According to a Reuters report published by Arab News and Free Malaysia Today on 26 September, the NOC halted one refining unit to keep the second unit running. The production lost on Friday (25 September) alone was 222,014 barrels. The 4-day loss we reported on 25 September was 720,362 barrels; adding Friday's 222,014 barrels to this figure matches exactly the 942,376 barrels announced by the NOC. The damage estimate rose from a level above 75 million dollars on 25 September to about 95 million dollars.
According to a report by The National on 26 September, the Zawiya refinery has a capacity of 120,000 barrels per day and the facility produces petrol, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, fuel oil and naphtha for the domestic market. According to the same report, the valve was closed by armed groups affiliated with the Western Southern Petroleum Facilities Guard Agency and the Western Military Region; the NOC warned that the outage would directly reduce oil revenues, double the fuel import bill and threaten fuel supplies to power plants. The National gives the week's highest daily loss as about 260,000 barrels on Tuesday; the NOC's day-by-day breakdown could not be verified.
According to The National, Libya holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves at 48.4 billion barrels. The NOC statement contains no information on when the valve will be opened or on the armed groups' demands; our earlier records noted that the outage began on 22 September and that the Zawiya refinery was first halted on 23 September.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
On its 5th day the Sharara outage has jumped from crude losses to domestic fuel supply: the 120,000-barrel Zawiya refinery dropping to half capacity pushes Libya towards more product imports, while the daily loss rising to 222,014 barrels, about 1.7 times the first day, shows that the bargaining has hardened. Unless the condition for opening the valve is disclosed, losses will keep accumulating at more than 200,000 barrels a day.
Likely effects
- Libyan public financesNegativeWeeks
Direct damage of about 95 million dollars in 5 days and the NOC's warning that the import bill could double put pressure on a budget that relies on oil for most of its revenue and on the Central Bank's foreign currency supply.
- Western Libya fuel and power supplyNegativeWeeks
With part of Zawiya's 120,000-barrel capacity out of action, supplies of petrol, diesel and power plant fuel are tightening; the NOC said fuel supplies to power plants were under threat.
- Mediterranean oil market and TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
With Brent at $104.32 on 25 September, Libya's daily loss of more than 200,000 barrels tightens Mediterranean crude supply; regional refiners, including in Türkiye, may face extra costs in seeking alternative light crude.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Outage lasts for weeks50%
The valve stays closed, the cumulative loss exceeds 1.5 million barrels, Zawiya runs on a single unit and product imports increase.
Watch: The cumulative figure in the NOC's daily loss bulletin passing 1.5 million barrels
- 2Reopening through negotiation35%
The authorities in Tripoli reach a deal with the armed groups, the valve is opened and Sharara recovers production within a few days.
Watch: An NOC statement that the valve has been opened and flow has resumed
- 3Outage spreads15%
The closure spreads to other pipelines or export terminals, and the NOC declares force majeure.
Watch: A declaration of force majeure for any terminal
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Sharara cumulative loss (5 days)▼ 942,376 barrels
- NOC direct damage▼ ~95 million $
- Single-day loss on 25 Sep▼ 222,014 barrels