MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints25 September 2026, Friday
Losses from Libya's Sharara pipeline closure reach 720,362 barrels in 4 days; daily losses roughly double the first day's, damage exceeds $75 million
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on 25 September that the forced closure of valve No. 7 on the Sharara–Zawiya crude pipeline had caused 720,362 barrels of lost output in 4 days. Daily losses rose from 129,085 barrels on 21 September to a 236,000–259,000 barrel band on 22–24 September; direct financial damage exceeded $75 million as of 24 September.
According to a 25 September Libya Update report, the daily losses announced by NOC were: 129,085 barrels on 21 September, 259,349 on 22 September, 235,983 on 23 September and 237,937 on 24 September. The corporation put the total loss at 720,362 barrels and the direct financial damage at more than $75 million as of 24 September. Newsquawk also reported that NOC announced the 720,000 barrel loss at 13:21 UTC on 25 September. Note: the four daily figures add up to 862,354 barrels; the difference from the announced total of 720,362 barrels is not explained in the sources and could not be verified.
In a 22 September Asharq Al-Awsat report, NOC had put the initial impact of the closure at around 130,000 barrels a day; from 22 September the loss rose to roughly double that. According to NOC, the valve remaining closed could deplete the Zawiya refinery's crude stocks, leading to refinery units shutting down one after another and disruption of the fuel supply chain. As of 25 September there had been no official declaration of force majeure or any statement that the valve had been reopened.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
NOC's daily loss series shows that the closure's impact rose to roughly double the initially announced 130,000 barrels/day and did not fall below 236,000 barrels for four days. Although force majeure has still not been declared, the warning of depleting stocks at the Zawiya refinery carries the risk of the problem spilling over from exports to domestic fuel supply. The internal inconsistency in the total figure leaves a question mark over the precision of NOC data.
Likely effects
- Oil supplyNegativeWeeks
Losses of 236,000–259,000 barrels a day are tightening the supply of light sweet crude to the Mediterranean; if the closure persists, a force majeure declaration could also affect loading programmes.
- Libyan public financesNegativeWeeks
Direct damage exceeding $75 million in 4 days creates a gap in a budget and central bank foreign currency inflows that depend entirely on oil revenue.
- Data reliabilityUncertainWeeks
The daily figures announced by NOC add up to 862,354 barrels while the declared total is 720,362 barrels; this gap requires loss estimates and the scope of any force majeure to be read with care.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Reopening through bargaining50%
The Petroleum Facilities Guard's demands are partly met, the valve is reopened within 1–2 weeks and Sharara returns to normal.
Watch: NOC announcement that the valve has been reopened
- 2Force majeure declared35%
The closure drags on, NOC declares force majeure on Zawiya loadings and the refinery stops.
Watch: Official NOC force majeure statement
- 3Spread15%
The Guard's threat to close 7 fields is carried out and other fields, including El Feel, also stop.
Watch: Production statements for El Feel and other western fields
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Sharara cumulative loss (4 days)▼ 720,362 barrels
- Daily loss (24 Sep)▼ 237,937 barrels
- NOC direct damage▼ $75+ million
Sources
- Libya Update — Sharara pipeline closure increases production losses and threatens operations at Al-Zawiya refinery
- Newsquawk — Libya's NOC says forced closure of the valve on the Sharara–Zawiya crude pipeline has led to a loss of 720k barrels of output
- Asharq Al-Awsat — Libya's NOC says Sharara crude pipeline closure losses 130,000 bpd