Nigeria's current account surplus seen widening to 8.69 billion dollars

According to a 7 October report by Nairametrics, FMDA expects the current account surplus to rise from 7.54 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026 to 8.69 billion in the third; official data have not yet been published. The series has grown quickly: the surplus was 1.40 billion dollars in the last quarter of 2025 and 4.98 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Over the same period the trade surplus rose from 1.18 billion to 9.22 billion dollars. The source attributes the gain to oil revenue, with Brent's September average up 14.43% at 99.95 dollars.

BusinessDay reported on 8 October that gross reserves stood at 54.98 billion dollars as of 6 October, 24.68% above the 42.54 billion of a year earlier. The paper wrote that the naira firmed to 1,331.77 per dollar on the official market, its strongest in two years. Business Post recorded the same 7 October close as a 0.06% depreciation from 1,330.87 the previous day; on the parallel market the rate eased from 1,370 to 1,365. The two readings do not contradict each other: the naira is strong against roughly 1,650 in December 2024, while the daily move is flat.

The central bank cut its policy rate by 350 basis points to 23% in September. That the currency held regardless suggests FX supply is coming from oil and portfolio inflows rather than central bank intervention. BusinessDay puts net portfolio inflows at 6.31 billion dollars for January–August, and United Capital analysts say stability remains dependent on those flows. The constraint is that the surplus would erode quickly if Brent falls to 74 dollars in 2027, as the EIA forecast cited by FMDA suggests.