MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security6 October 2026, Tuesday

Nigeria offers 40 oil and gas blocks in a new licensing round

Nigeria's Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) launched its 2026 licensing round on 6 October with President Tinubu's approval, offering 40 onshore, shallow-water and deepwater blocks. In July, 37 of the 50 blocks offered in the previous round were awarded.

Location: ABUJA

According to BusinessDay, NUPRC chief executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan opened the round on 6 October. Bidders will have to declare technical competence, financial capacity and beneficial ownership. The split of blocks by terrain had not been disclosed as of 6 October. Eyesan said indigenous producers now account for 70% of national crude output, against 3% a decade ago and 50% last year. Since 2024 the commission has approved 120 field development plans carrying total capital commitments of $47bn.

The 2025 round showed that the constraint is capital, not geology. ThisDay reported on 22 July that around 300 companies initially showed interest. After prequalification, 143 companies submitted 200 bids for 37 assets. Energy Intelligence said most of the 37 blocks went to indigenous and little-known firms. Chevron, the only international oil company, took the round's sole deepwater block. A MENAS note of 25 June said the commission had cut signature bonuses from around $200m to $3m for marginal fields and $7m for deepwater.

The government expects the 37 blocks awarded in 2025 to deliver at least 300,000 barrels a day and 500 million barrels of additional reserves within three years. Leadership reported on 4 October that Nigeria currently produces about 1.7 million barrels a day and aims to reach 3 million by 2030. The same report said Indonesia's state oil company Pertamina has signalled interest in the 2026 round for producing or near-production assets. The make-up of the 2025 round suggests the capital to close the 1.3 million-barrel gap may come mainly from indigenous firms and foreign state companies.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Nigeria is trying to close its output gap by putting licensing rounds on an annual calendar. Yet international companies took almost no blocks in 2025, which shows the constraint is large-scale capital and deepwater capability, not the number of blocks. The most likely outcome is that the 2026 round also goes mainly to indigenous firms, which makes the 3 million-barrel target for 2030 look hard to reach.

Likely effects

Global oil supplyUncertain6 months+
New blocks take years to produce, so the round adds no barrels to the market in the near term; any effect would only show at the end of the three-year development window.
Nigerian public financesUncertain1–6 months
With signature bonuses cut to $3m–7m, direct revenue from the round stays limited; the real gain comes through tax and royalties if output rises.
Indigenous producersPositive1–6 months
Indigenous firms, which supply 70% of output, will grow their share with new blocks, but they lack the scale to finance deepwater projects.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Indigenous-led outcome60%
Most blocks again go to indigenous firms, and participation by international companies stays limited.
Watch: The number of international companies on NUPRC's prequalification list
2
State companies step in25%
Asian state companies such as Pertamina acquire near-production assets through bids or bilateral deals.
Watch: An announced asset deal between NUPRC and a foreign state company
3
The process drags on15%
As in the previous round, the tender runs for months and results slip into next year.
Watch: A postponement of the bid deadline

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Blocks on offer▲ 40
Indigenous producers' output share▲ 70%
Daily output▲ ≈1.7m b/d

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources