MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt11 September 2026, Friday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Survey of Market Participants: year-end inflation expectation rises to 29.61% and 12-month-ahead dollar expectation to 58.60 lira
Expectations have moved above the Medium-Term Programme's year-end forecast of 28.4%.
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's September Survey of Market Participants, with 67 respondents, the year-end consumer inflation expectation rose from 29.43% to 29.61%. The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation was 23.70% and the 24-month-ahead expectation 18.32%.
The year-end USD/TRY expectation was 51.57 lira, while the 12-month-ahead expectation rose from 57.43 lira in the previous survey to 58.60 lira. The 2026 growth expectation fell from 3.1% to 3.0%. The 2027–2029 Medium-Term Programme, announced on 6 September, had projected year-end inflation at 28.4%; market expectations remaining above this forecast point to a weakening of the expectations anchor.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The September survey shows markets expect disinflation to proceed more slowly than the Medium-Term Programme path: the year-end expectation, at 29.61%, is above the MTP forecast of 28.4% and still rising. The 12-month-ahead dollar expectation of 58.60 lira indicates that a controlled but continuous depreciation of the currency is priced in. The most likely path is a gradual and delayed convergence of expectations towards the MTP target; firmer anchoring requires a clear improvement in monthly inflation data.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's inflation expectationsNegative1–6 months
Year-end expectations exceeding the MTP forecast raise the risk of backward indexation in pricing behaviour and wage bargaining, increasing the cost of disinflation.
- Turkish lira and financial planningNegative1–6 months
The rise in the 12-month-ahead dollar expectation from 57.43 to 58.60 lira leads companies to adopt higher exchange-rate assumptions when planning import costs and foreign-currency debt.
- Growth outlookUncertain1–6 months
The cut in the 2026 growth expectation from 3.1% to 3.0% shows that tight financial conditions continue to bite and that a limited demand-side slowdown is expected.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual and delayed convergence50%
Expectations stay flat or edge up in coming surveys and remain above the MTP forecast; dollar expectations continue to rise gradually.
Watch: The year-end expectation staying around 29.61% in the October survey, and the path of monthly CPI data.
- 2Deeper deterioration in expectations35%
Year-end and 12-month-ahead expectations keep rising in successive surveys and the gap between the MTP and markets widens.
Watch: The 12-month-ahead inflation expectation rising above 23.70% and the year-end expectation climbing again.
- 3Expectations move towards the MTP15%
Better-than-expected monthly inflation pulls the year-end expectation back towards the MTP forecast.
Watch: A marked decline in the year-end inflation expectation towards 28.4%.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.