MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints1 October 2026, Thursday
Premier Alliance returns to the Suez route for the first time since 2024
gCaptain reported on 1 October that Premier Alliance will send an 8,100 TEU ship through Suez on 9 November on its FE1 Asia–North Europe service. It is the alliance's first Suez move since January 2024. Sisi, meanwhile, said Egypt had lost about 20 billion dollars in canal revenue.
According to gCaptain, a schedule published by Japanese carrier ONE shows the 8,100 TEU One Continuity leaving Thailand's Laem Chabang port on 19 October. The ship will reach the Suez Canal on 9 November and Rotterdam on 19 November. On the same service, the 9,000 TEU NYK Venus, the 8,200 TEU ONE Hamburg and the 9,000 TEU NYK Orion will also leave Asia in November and December and transit Suez. The report said almost all major carriers would make a cautious return to Suez on Asia–Europe sailings in October 2026. A westbound transit by Cosco's 24,200 TEU OOCL Spain is planned for 4 October.
gCaptain said some 140 container ships with a combined capacity of about 2 million TEU have switched to the Suez route since May 2026. In one recent week, more than 30 ships of over 4,000 TEU passed through the canal. The report noted that the Houthis reportedly sent the EU a letter on 10 September pledging not to attack European cargo ships. In an attack in September, however, they seized the port of Mocha. Middle East Monitor reported on 30 September that President Sisi told a meeting on 29 September that Egypt had lost about 20 billion dollars in Suez revenue in recent years because of regional instability.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Premier Alliance's move shows that the return to Suez has spread from trials by individual carriers to the sector as a whole. For Egypt, it means a recovery in foreign currency income after losses of about 20 billion dollars. The return, however, depends on Houthi pledges and on fresh tensions in the Red Sea. The most likely path is a cautious and gradual increase.
Likely effects
- Egypt's FX incomePositive1–6 months
The return of Asia–Europe services to the canal restores one of Egypt's most important sources of foreign currency and eases pressure on external financing.
- Freight rates and transit timesPositive1–6 months
Using Suez instead of the Cape of Good Hope shortens Asia–Europe voyages and raises effective capacity, which could put downward pressure on freight rates.
- Red Sea riskNegativeWeeks
The Houthi seizure of Mocha and new fighting in the region are reminders that a single attack could quickly reverse return decisions.
- TürkiyePositive1–6 months
Renewed flows of Asia–Europe trade through the Mediterranean offer shorter and more regular connections for Turkish ports and Eastern Mediterranean transhipment traffic.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual return continues60%
The planned transits go ahead, and more services shift to Suez in November and December.
Watch: One Continuity's 9 November transit and the weekly count of container ships through Suez
- 2Pause after an attack30%
A new attack on a merchant ship in the Red Sea sends carriers back around the Cape of Good Hope.
Watch: Reports of attacks on ships around Bab el-Mandeb
- 3Rapid full return10%
Perceptions of security improve quickly, and the alliances move all their Asia–Europe services to the canal.
Watch: Schedule announcements moving major alliances' entire networks to Suez
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- First Premier Alliance Suez transit▲ 9 November
- Container ships returned since May▲ 140
- Capacity returned▲ ~2 million TEU
- Egypt's lost canal revenue (Sisi)▼ ~$20 billion