MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints16 September 2026, Wednesday
Russian gas to Armenia cut from 15 to 25 September: 82% of imports came from Russia in 2025, at 2.7 billion cubic metres
Gazprom halted natural gas flows to Armenia from 15 September until 25 September because of planned maintenance on the North Caucasus-Transcaucasus pipeline. Gazprom Armenia said the gap would be covered by domestic reserves and additional imports from Iran.
As The Moscow Times reported, the interruption stems from planned maintenance work on the North Caucasus-Transcaucasus natural gas pipeline, which feeds Armenia from southern Russia via Georgia, and is expected to last until 25 September 2026; that is a window of about 11 days. According to the same report, Russia supplied Armenia with 2.7 billion cubic metres of gas in 2025, equivalent to 82% of the country's total gas imports. The price of Russian gas was reported at 177.5 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres.
Gazprom Armenia announced that during the maintenance subscribers would be supplied from domestic reserves and additional imports from Iran; the additional volume to be taken from Iran was not disclosed. OC Media's summary of 16 September said the interruption would last 10 days and was caused by planned maintenance on a major pipeline in Russia. The two sources reported the start date with a small difference; the Moscow Times takes Tuesday, that is 15 September, as the starting point.
The Moscow Times notes that similar repair work was carried out the previous September as well, making this an annually recurring maintenance. The same report says the current bilateral gas agreement expires at the end of 2026; the terms of renewal had not been announced when this record was written.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Even though the maintenance is a technical operation, a country drawing 82% of its imports through a single line having to lean on reserves and an Iranian swap for 11 days makes its structural fragility visible. With the agreement due to expire at the end of the year, that fragility turns into a bargaining matter. The most likely direction is that the maintenance is completed as planned but that Yerevan accelerates its search for diversification.
Likely effects
- Armenian energy securityNegative1–6 months
An 82% dependence on a single line forces the country to rely on reserves and Iranian imports even during planned maintenance; diversifying supply becomes a political rather than a technical necessity.
- The Iran-Armenia linePositive1–6 months
The Iranian imports brought in during the interruption effectively test Tehran's energy leverage in the South Caucasus and set a reference point for future contracts.
- Corridor effect for TürkiyePositive6 months+
If Armenia's search for an alternative to Russian gas strengthens, pipeline and trade corridor options running through Türkiye rise up the agenda in the South Caucasus.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Maintenance ends as planned65%
Flows resume on 25 September and there is no lasting interruption reaching consumers.
Watch: Gazprom Armenia announcing around 25 September that flows have returned to normal.
- 2The maintenance is extended20%
The repair takes longer than foreseen and dependence on reserves and Iranian imports runs past the end of September.
Watch: A statement from Yerevan or Gazprom that flows had not resumed after 25 September.
- 3Contract bargaining hardens15%
Renewal of the agreement that expires at the end of the year turns into a political contest over price and volume.
Watch: Reports of a price or volume dispute between Yerevan and Gazprom towards the end of the year.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Armenian gas supply▼ 11-day cut
- Iran-Armenia swap▲ activated
- Russia-Armenia tie▼ questioned