MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI29 September 2026, Tuesday
Samsung says HBM will near 30% of DRAM capacity next year
Samsung Electronics Vice President Kim Taewoo said on 29 September that HBM memory, used in artificial intelligence chips, will take about 30% of the industry's total DRAM wafer capacity in 2027. The share is about 20% today; its growth could squeeze the supply of standard DRAM.
Business Recorder reported on 29 September that Kim Taewoo said HBM's share of industry DRAM wafer capacity will approach 30% in 2027, up from about 20% today. HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, consists of memory chips stacked on top of one another so that a processor can access large volumes of data quickly. According to Kim, HBM and standard DRAM compete for the same wafer capacity, so every increase in HBM could constrain the supply of standard DRAM. The same report said 3 manufacturers dominate the market: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and Micron.
TrendForce's round-up of 29 September, citing ijiwei, said HBM consumes about 3 times as much wafer area as standard DRAM. On that basis, the area taken up by 1 HBM die is equivalent to about 3 GB of DDR5 memory. A rise in HBM's share from 20% to 30% could therefore tighten the supply of standard DRAM 2 to 3 times as fast. TrendForce raised its HBM price outlook for 2027 and projects a 121% annual rise in the blended average selling price. An estimate that Samsung would lift its monthly HBM wafer input from 180,000 to 250,000 was reported on 25 September. What is new is the statement on a 30% share across the industry.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Artificial intelligence demand is pulling memory makers' capacity towards HBM and pushing standard DRAM into second place. Because HBM consumes about 3 times as much wafer area, a rise in its share to 30% means a supply squeeze in memory for phones, computers and servers. The most likely path is high memory prices throughout 2027 and a strong run in Korea's chip exports.
Likely effects
- Memory pricesNegative1–6 months
Tighter supply of standard DRAM raises memory costs for computer, phone and server makers, and those costs feed through to end-user prices.
- Korean exportsPositive1–6 months
The projected 121% rise in HBM prices supports South Korea's chip export revenue through Samsung and SK Hynix.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Because Türkiye imports most of its computer, phone and data centre hardware, higher memory prices feed into the import bill and the cost of digital investment.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tight supply persists60%
HBM's share approaches 30%, and standard DRAM prices stay high throughout 2027.
Watch: TrendForce's monthly DRAM contract prices
- 2New capacity closes the gap30%
New fabs and capacity at Chinese manufacturers partly close the shortfall in standard DRAM.
Watch: Samsung's and SK Hynix's schedules for bringing new fabs on stream
- 3AI demand slows10%
Orders for artificial intelligence servers slow, HBM capacity is left in surplus and prices fall.
Watch: Quarterly capital expenditure statements from the large cloud companies
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- HBM share of DRAM wafers, 2027▲ ~30%
- HBM blended price, 2027 forecast▲ +121%
- HBM wafer area versus DRAM▲ ~3 times