MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence22 September 2026, Tuesday
Sharaa says Turkish bases in Syria will be given legal status with People's Assembly approval; Russian bases down from 170 to 2
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said at an Atlantic Council event in New York that Türkiye's remaining military presence will be given legal status with the approval of the People's Assembly. According to Sharaa, Russian bases have fallen from about 170 to 2, while the SDF has been dissolved and absorbed into state structures.
As reported by Turkish Minute, Sharaa said on Tuesday (22 September), at an Atlantic Council session moderated by Brett McGurk on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, that the number of Turkish bases in north-western Syria had fallen and that work was under way to formally authorise the remaining Turkish military presence through parliament. According to Sharaa, every foreign military presence must have the approval of the People's Assembly and legal status; he added that Syria would very soon no longer need any foreign military presence. Turkish Minute recalled that Defence Minister Yaşar Güler said in June 2025 that there were more than 20,000 Turkish troops in Syria; current troop and base numbers could not be verified. Breaking Defense dated the event 23 September; there is a one-day discrepancy between the two sources.
According to Breaking Defense, Sharaa said Russia once had about 170 military bases, that only 2 remain today (Hmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base) and that these were converted into joint training centres under an understanding reached in August 2026. Sharaa stated that the SDF had been dissolved and operates under the Syrian state; SDF commander Mazloum Abdi had announced on 25 August that the group would dissolve through integration into the army. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan welcomed the decision during his visit to Damascus on 13 September but said the commitment must be implemented on the ground. Sharaa also said negotiations with Israel had reached about 90% of agreement before the Israeli withdrawal.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Sharaa's statement legitimises the Turkish military presence while also making it time-bound: parliamentary approval provides a legal basis, but the emphasis on 'soon no longer needed' reveals Damascus's goal of full sovereignty over the extended term. The dissolution of the SDF weakens Ankara's main security rationale. The most likely path is for a limited number of Turkish bases to remain with legal status, alongside a gradual drawdown.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's military presence in SyriaUncertain1–6 months
People's Assembly approval gives Turkish bases a stronger footing in international law, but the time-bound and conditional nature of the status limits Ankara's room for manoeuvre.
- Border securityPositive1–6 months
If the SDF's integration into the army is completed on the ground, Türkiye's need for cross-border operations diminishes; if not, tensions return.
- Russia's regional weightPositive6 months+
The drop in Russian bases from about 170 to 2 increases Türkiye's relative military weight in Syria.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited presence with legal status55%
The People's Assembly approves the Turkish bases, and the presence continues with a declining number of bases.
Watch: A vote in Syria's People's Assembly on the Turkish military presence
- 2Protracted uncertainty30%
The approval process is postponed, and on-the-ground implementation of SDF integration remains disputed.
Watch: Statements by the Turkish Foreign Ministry and Ministry of National Defence on SDF integration
- 3Withdrawal timetable15%
Damascus demands an end date for the Turkish presence, and bilateral tension emerges.
Watch: A dated withdrawal demand from Damascus for foreign forces
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Russian bases▼ ~170 → 2
- Turkish troops (Jun 2025)▼ 20,000+
- Israel negotiations▲ ~90% agreed