MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints16 September 2026, Wednesday
First Korea–Central Asia summit in Seoul: Kazakhstan stands out with a 19 billion dollar package, Uzbekistan with about 12 billion dollars of projects
On 15 September Tokayev and Lee Jae-myung upgraded relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and signed 13 agreements. At the 16 September summit each country secured a separate package in critical minerals, energy and transport.
During Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's visit to Seoul on 15 September, the two countries upgraded their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Thirteen agreements and memoranda were signed in areas such as oil, nuclear energy, critical minerals and artificial intelligence. According to the Astana Times, the commercial agreements have a total value of 19 billion dollars. According to the Times of Central Asia, the package is led by a gas processing plant at Karachaganak with a capacity of 5 billion cubic metres a year and an expansion of the Pavlodar refinery's capacity to 9 million tonnes a year. According to the Korea Times, Korea's investment stock in Kazakhstan is 12 billion dollars. Tokayev proposed doubling bilateral trade and preparing a joint cooperation programme for 2027–2030.
At the first Korea–Central Asia summit on 16 September, Uzbekistan highlighted about 12 billion dollars of potential joint projects. In addition, an 8 billion dollar programme was set up with Korea Eximbank covering high-speed rail, semiconductors and critical mineral processing. Tajikistan upgraded its partnership in antimony, gold and railways, while Kyrgyzstan signed 18 agreements. It was agreed that the summit will be held every two years, with Kazakhstan hosting in 2028. The agreements offer regional capitals seeking to balance the weight of Russia and China a third source of investment in critical minerals and industry. However, a significant share of the figures is at the level of memoranda and intentions.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The summit adds a tangible third source of finance in critical minerals, energy and transport to the multi-vector policy of Central Asian capitals vis-à-vis Russia and China. Much of the headline figures, however, is at memorandum and intent level; the most likely outcome is that selected flagship projects such as Karachaganak gas processing and the Pavlodar expansion advance while the rest moves slowly. Holding the summit every two years shows the relationship is being institutionalised.
Likely effects
- Critical minerals supplyPositive6 months+
Korea Eximbank's 8 billion dollar programme and Tajikistan's antimony partnership bring non-Chinese capital and technology to the region's critical mineral processing. This is positive both for regional economies and for industrial countries seeking to diversify supply.
- Russian and Chinese weightUncertain6 months+
The deals do not remove Moscow's and Beijing's influence, but they strengthen the bargaining power of regional capitals. The effect will show as gradual rebalancing, particularly in investment and technology choices.
- Türkiye's Central Asia roleUncertain1–6 months
Korea's entry into energy, railway and industrial projects means new competition for Turkish firms contracting and investing in the region. At the same time, the region's multi-vector opening may create partnership opportunities within the Middle Corridor and Organization of Turkic States frameworks.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Selected flagship projects advance55%
Gas processing and refinery projects in Kazakhstan and several Eximbank-backed projects in Uzbekistan reach financing and investment decisions; the rest of the package moves slowly.
Watch: Announcement of loans or final investment decisions for the Karachaganak plant and the Pavlodar expansion.
- 2Most deals stay on paper40%
Memoranda do not become projects, financing is not found and the 2027–2030 joint cooperation programme is delayed; the summit remains mainly a diplomatic message.
Watch: No new project tenders or loan agreements announced in the coming months.
- 3Broad and rapid implementation5%
Most packages are delivered quickly, trade with Kazakhstan heads towards doubling and Korea rises to become the third-largest investor in the region after China and Russia.
Watch: Signing of the 2027–2030 joint programme and a marked jump in bilateral trade data.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.