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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 September 2026, Tuesday

Saudi oil swings back to Hormuz as Bab el-Mandeb flows halve

Kpler data show Saudi Arabia's shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 2.58 million barrels a day in September. Oil flows through Bab el-Mandeb, hit by Houthi attacks, fell from 5.45 million barrels a day in August to 2.56 million.

Location: BAB EL-MANDEB

According to Kpler data reported by The National on 29 September, Saudi Arabia's September shipments through Hormuz reached 2.58 million barrels a day. That gives the kingdom 43% of oil traffic through the strait. Over the same period, flows through Bab el-Mandeb, the strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, fell from 5.45 million to 2.56 million barrels a day. The report recalls that a drone strike on 10 September halted the East-West pipeline and that loadings at Yanbu stopped on 11 September.

According to an Al Jazeera analysis of 30 September, Saudi exports rose from 2.446 million barrels a day in August to 5.4 million in September. Anadolu Agency wrote on 30 September that Saudi Arabia had regained half of its export capacity via the East-West pipeline. The same data show that Iran, under a US blockade, shipped only 100,000 barrels a day in September, against 2.5 million in February.

Two sources measure the September recovery differently. According to Kpler, combined flows through Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez fell to 9.99 million barrels a day in September, 61% below February's level. Al Jazeera, however, writes that regional exports including pipelines reached 16.328 million barrels a day, about 80% of the pre-war level. The 2 figures cover different routes and cannot be compared directly.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Saudi Arabia is rebuilding its exports by shifting from the Red Sea route, made risky by Houthi attacks, to the Strait of Hormuz. The shift cut oil traffic through Bab el-Mandeb by more than half in September. The kingdom is now balancing risk between two straits. Which route prevails will depend on Houthi pressure on Yanbu and Iranian pressure on Hormuz.

Likely effects

  • Oil supplyPositiveWeeks

    Saudi exports rising to 5.4 million barrels a day in September narrow the global supply gap and partly ease price pressure.

  • Red Sea tradeNegative1–6 months

    The fall in Bab el-Mandeb oil flows to 2.56 million barrels a day weakens tanker traffic through the Suez route and canal revenues.

  • TürkiyeNegative1–6 months

    Concentrating supply in Hormuz makes the Gulf oil on which Türkiye relies more dependent on a single fragile passage.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Hormuz stays dominant50%

    Saudi shipments remain concentrated in Hormuz, while Yanbu operates at low volumes as a secondary route.

    Watch: The Saudi share of Hormuz flows in October Kpler data

  2. 2
    Return to the Red Sea30%

    Defences at Yanbu are strengthened, Houthi attacks decline and the East-West pipeline nears full capacity.

    Watch: Yanbu loading counts and Houthi attack claims

  3. 3
    Both routes squeezed20%

    Attacks in Hormuz and new missile strikes on Yanbu intensify at the same time, and Saudi exports fall again.

    Watch: UKMTO alerts and statements from the Saudi-led coalition

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Bab el-Mandeb transits, last 6 months

112130405021/0516/0612/0706/0801/0927/0910 September 2026 — Houthis seize the port of Mocha and the Perim and Hanish islands in the Bab el-Mandeb121 September 2026 — Houthis announce 2 operations against Riyadh and Yanbu, and Trump halts the Yemen strike despite bombs already loaded222 September 2026 — Up to 169 killed in 3 days over Yemen's Kahbub heights; casualty figures from the parties and the WHO do not match324 September 2026 — 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships424 September 2026 — Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day5
  1. 110/09 · Houthis seize the port of Mocha and the Perim and Hanish islands in the Bab el-Mandeb
  2. 221/09 · Houthis announce 2 operations against Riyadh and Yanbu, and Trump halts the Yemen strike despite bombs already loaded
  3. 322/09 · Up to 169 killed in 3 days over Yemen's Kahbub heights; casualty figures from the parties and the WHO do not match
  4. 424/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
  5. 524/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day

Sources

  1. The National — Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz rise on Saudi pivot as Red Sea traffic plunges
  2. Al Jazeera — Economic war: Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz?
  3. Anadolu Agency — Oil prices fall on higher Hormuz flows, US reserve release plans