MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt10 September 2026, Thursday · 17:16 TRT (UTC+3)
CBRT gross reserves fall by 4 billion dollars, with most of the decline coming from the gold price
In the week of 4 September gross reserves fell to 184.2 billion dollars; foreigners were net sellers of equities and net buyers of government bonds.
Gross reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye fell by 3.95 billion dollars in the week of 4 September to 184.25 billion dollars. Gold reserves fell by 3.25 billion dollars to 113.84 billion dollars and foreign currency reserves to 70.41 billion dollars; gold's share of gross reserves is thus about 61.8%. According to Gedik Yatırım's calculation, the fall in the gold price pulled gross reserves down by 3.5 billion dollars and net reserves by 2.1 billion dollars.
Sources give different figures for net reserves excluding swaps: the Dünya newspaper reports 53.4 billion dollars, while a Hibya report based on Gedik Yatırım gives 53.6 billion dollars. In the same week non-residents made net sales of 647.6 million dollars in equities and net purchases of 156.7 million dollars in government domestic debt securities. The picture shows that reserves are more sensitive to the gold price than to foreign currency sales.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Roughly 3.5 billion of the 4 billion dollar decline came from lower gold prices; the picture points to a valuation effect rather than reserve depletion through FX sales. With gold at 61.8% of gross reserves, the reserve stock is more sensitive to global gold prices than to FX intervention. The most likely path is reserves fluctuating with gold; what matters most is the direction of net reserves stripped of valuation effects and whether foreign equity outflows persist.
Likely effects
- Reserve indicator volatilityUncertainWeeks
The gold-heavy reserve structure creates sharp gold-driven swings in weekly gross and net reserve data. This raises the risk of headline figures being misread as signals of FX intervention.
- External financing perceptionUncertain1–6 months
Net reserves excluding swaps holding at around 53.4–53.6 billion dollars show buffer capacity against external shocks remains in place. Sensitivity to gold, however, means a correction in the global gold market could weigh on risk premium perception.
- Foreign portfolio flowsNegativeWeeks
Foreigners' net equity sales of 647.6 million dollars and net government bond purchases of 156.7 million dollars show risk appetite shifting towards high-yield fixed income. The equity outflow is negative for market depth in the near term.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gold-driven fluctuation continues65%
Reserves fluctuate weekly with gold prices; no significant FX sales are seen beyond valuation effects.
Watch: Flat net reserves, stripped of gold price effects, in weekly reserve data.
- 2Genuine depletion through FX sales25%
The energy bill or portfolio outflows force the CBRT to sell FX and net reserves fall independently of gold prices.
Watch: Consecutive falls in net reserves while gold is flat, and foreigners also exiting government bonds.
- 3Strong reserve accumulation10%
Portfolio inflows and a recovery in gold prices lift reserves quickly.
Watch: Foreigners becoming net buyers in both equities and government bonds and gross reserves rising above prior levels.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.