HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt25 September 2026, Friday
Türkiye's CDS tops 250 for the first time since 27 May: as the $18 billion liquidation of 131 funds proceeds, Erdoğan says no systemic risk; 45 arrested
Türkiye's 5-year CDS rose above 250 basis points on 25 September for the first time since 27 May; it was 223 on 11 September. The 131 funds placed into liquidation by the CMB cover around $18.3 billion in assets and 455,758 investors; Erdoğan said on 24 September that there was no risk to the financial system.
According to Bloomberg HT's 25 September market summary, Türkiye's 5-year credit risk premium exceeded 250 for the first time since 27 May; on the same day the dollar/lira rose 0.15% to 48.97, the euro/lira stood at 55.84, and the BIST 100 closed 0.08% higher at 12,898 points. In Investing.com data the CDS was 223.02 basis points on 11 September, 232.80 on 18 September and 245.17 on 24 September; the 25 September closing value was not yet available from this source, so the exact close could not be verified. On the same day the US 30-year yield, at 5.51%, was at its highest since 2004, and the German 30-year yield, at 3.92%, at its highest since 2011.
According to 24 and 25 September Turkish Minute reports, the CMB placed 131 funds belonging to 7 portfolio management companies into liquidation; the funds' pre-liquidation assets were around $18.3 billion, the number of affected investors 455,758, and the liquidation period was extended from 3 to 6 months. The number of those arrested rose to 45 as of 25 September; by 21 September MASAK had stopped attempted transactions worth around $51 million. According to a 24 September Karar report, Erdoğan said on his return from the UN that the problem lay in a limited area of the capital market; according to Sözcü, he said those responsible would be held to account before the law. Main opposition leader Özgür Özel, meanwhile, called it the fraud of the century.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The risk premium has risen by around 27 basis points since 11 September to exceed 250: global extended-maturity yields climbing to their 2004 and 2011 peaks coincided in the same week with the liquidation of funds with 455,758 investors. Erdoğan's message of no systemic risk is calming in the near term, but the 6-month liquidation timetable and ongoing detentions make CDS holding around 250 the most likely path.
Likely effects
- External financingNegativeWeeks
CDS exceeding 250 raises the foreign currency borrowing costs of the Treasury and banks; the rise from 223 on 11 September to above 250 on 25 September shows that perceived external fragility increased within 2 weeks.
- Capital market confidenceNegative1–6 months
The liquidation of 131 funds spread over 6 months stretches forced selling pressure on the equity and fund markets over time, but limits investor confidence for months.
- CurrencyUncertainWeeks
The dollar/lira rising only 0.15% to 48.97 on 25 September shows that the jump in the risk premium has had a limited effect on the currency.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Flat around 25055%
The liquidation timetable proceeds, no new funds are closed, and CDS stays in the 240–260 band.
Watch: CMB liquidation payment schedule and weekly CBRT reserve data
- 2Contagion and a rise30%
Exit restrictions at other funds or a new peak in global yields push CDS above 270.
Watch: US 30-year yield staying above 5.51%
- 3Rapid normalisation15%
Liquidation payments are made faster than expected and CDS returns to the 220s seen in early September.
Watch: First payment announcements from the banks handling the liquidation
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Türkiye 5-year CDS▲ >250 basis points
- Dollar/lira▲ 48.97 (+0.15%)
- Fund assets in liquidation▼ ~$18.3 billion
Historical context
Türkiye 5-year CDS, last 6 months
Sources
- Bloomberg HT — Markets summary of the day, 25 September 2026
- Bloomberg HT — Economy and politics agenda, 25 September 2026
- Investing.com — Turkey CDS 5-year USD historical data
- Turkish Minute — Erdoğan downplays $18 billion fund crisis, says no risk to financial system
- Turkish Minute — Turkey jails 17 more, seizes assets amid $18 billion fund turmoil
- Karar — Erdoğan's statement on the fund investigation
- Sözcü — Erdoğan's first statement on the fund crisis