MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI8 October 2026, Thursday
TSMC's third-quarter revenue hits a record 1.49 trillion NT dollars
TSMC reported September revenue of 511.86 billion NT dollars on 8 October, up 54.6% on a year earlier. Third-quarter revenue of 1.49 trillion NT dollars set a record and beat the upper end of the company's own guidance.
According to a filing with the SEC dated 8 October, September revenue of 511.86 billion NT dollars was 0.6% lower than in August but 54.6% above the 330.98 billion NT dollars of September 2025. Revenue for January–September totalled 3,898.73 billion NT dollars, 41.1% more than a year earlier. An Economic Daily News compilation cited by TrendForce shows analysts expected 444.8–483.2 billion NT dollars for September. The actual figure topped the upper end of that range by about 29 billion NT dollars.
Third-quarter revenue reached 1.49 trillion NT dollars, or 46.71 billion dollars, up 50% year on year. In July TSMC guided to 44.6–45.8 billion dollars for the quarter, assuming an exchange rate of 32 NT dollars to the dollar. LSEG's SmartEstimate, drawn from 19 analysts, was 1.46 trillion NT dollars. LSEG analysts expect net profit to rise 64% year on year to 740.8 billion NT dollars; that is a forecast, not a company figure.
The same day, according to a company announcement cited by TipRanks, TSMC Development lent 3.83 billion NT dollars to its TSMC Washington unit in Washington state. The company will report final quarterly results and profitability data at an online conference on 15 October; its gross margin guidance for the quarter was 65–67%.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Revenue beat the top of guidance by about 0.9 billion dollars; AI demand at the most advanced nodes has yet to hit a capacity ceiling. The 0.6% monthly dip in September is not on its own evidence of a slowdown, because August was a record month. The real test will be the margin and fourth-quarter guidance due on 15 October.
Likely effects
- Taiwan's exportsPositiveWeeks
Revenue growth of 54.6% year on year keeps Taiwan's chip exports and current account surplus high, putting upward pressure on the NT dollar.
- AI hardware costsNegative1–6 months
While demand at advanced nodes stays strong, customers have little bargaining power on price; accelerator and server costs stay high.
- US manufacturing baseUncertain1–6 months
The 3.83 billion NT dollar intra-group loan to TSMC Washington shows US sites are still being funded from within the group.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Guidance is raised55%
On 15 October fourth-quarter guidance comes in above the third quarter's 46.71 billion dollars and margins stay above 65%.
Watch: Quarterly results and fourth-quarter revenue guidance on 15 October
- 2Strong revenue, squeezed margin30%
Revenue guidance holds, but a strong NT dollar and the cost of US sites push gross margin toward the bottom of the 65–67% range.
Watch: Gross margin and exchange rate assumption announced on 15 October
- 3Demand levels off15%
October revenue comes in well below September's 511.86 billion NT dollars, showing the smartphone inventory build was temporary.
Watch: October revenue report due around 10 November
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- September revenue (year on year)▲ +54.6%
- Third-quarter revenue▲ $46.71bn
- Top of guidance▲ $45.8bn