MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt11 September 2026, Friday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Türkiye posts a current account surplus of 36 million dollars in July; annualised current account deficit at 40.7 billion dollars
Excluding gold and energy there is a surplus of about 4.97 billion dollars; the deficit stems from energy and gold imports.
According to balance of payments data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye on 11 September, the current account posted a surplus of 36 million dollars in July; the 12-month current account deficit was 40.7 billion dollars. The 12-month trade deficit came in at 77.2 billion dollars and the primary income deficit at 25.2 billion dollars.
Excluding gold and energy, the current account shows a surplus of about 4.97 billion dollars. This shows that the deficit structurally stems from energy and gold imports. In July, portfolio inflows from non-residents were 5.84 billion dollars and the increase in reserves was 14.25 billion dollars. Elevated Brent crude prices risk enlarging the energy bill in the coming months.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
July's 36 million dollar surplus does not change the structure of the 40.7 billion dollar twelve-month deficit. The surplus of about 4.97 billion dollars excluding gold and energy shows the deficit stems entirely from energy and gold imports. With Brent staying high, the most likely path is the annual deficit holding near current levels or widening slightly; 5.84 billion dollars of portfolio inflows ease financing for now, but those flows are volatile.
Likely effects
- External financing needsNegative1–6 months
An annual current account deficit of 40.7 billion dollars and a primary income deficit of 25.2 billion dollars sustain Türkiye's regular external financing need. This keeps sensitivity high to shifts in global risk appetite and the country risk premium.
- Energy billNegative1–6 months
A surplus in the balance excluding energy shows energy prices are the main source of the deficit. Elevated Brent carries the risk of enlarging the energy import bill in coming months, pushing up the trade and current account deficits.
- Reserves and portfolio flowsPositiveWeeks
Portfolio inflows of 5.84 billion dollars and a reserve increase of 14.25 billion dollars in July show financing conditions are favourable in the near term. Portfolio flows, however, can reverse quickly in global and geopolitical shocks.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Deficit near current level55%
The twelve-month deficit stays around 40 billion dollars or widens slightly with energy prices; financing comes from portfolio inflows.
Watch: Energy and gold import items in August and September balance of payments data, and the path of Brent.
- 2Marked energy-driven widening35%
Elevated Brent becomes entrenched and the energy bill grows; the annual deficit widens markedly and financing needs rise.
Watch: A marked rise in monthly energy imports and the twelve-month trade deficit exceeding 77.2 billion dollars.
- 3Deficit narrows10%
Energy prices fall, gold imports decline and exports strengthen; the annual deficit narrows markedly.
Watch: The twelve-month deficit falling in consecutive months and a decline in gold imports.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.