MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security13 October 2026, Tuesday
Deferred WTI contract sets a record for a 12th straight session
According to a Bloomberg report carried by InvestingLive and Rigzone, WTI's calendar-2027 contract set a record for a 12th straight session on 13 October at about $84 a barrel. The same day front-month December Brent fell 0.9% to settle at $105.69.
InvestingLive says Brent's 2027 strip hit a record of about $90 on 12 October, when December Brent also posted its highest close since 15 September. Investing.com data put that close at $106.65. November WTI rose 40 cents to settle at $94.14 on 13 October, and US diesel futures gained about 5%. Rigzone says crude has gained more than 70% this year.
The gap between the front month and the 2027 contract is about $10 for WTI and about $16 for Brent. Deferred contracts rising faster than the front month show the market starting to price the supply disruption as a multi-year cost rather than a temporary one. Mark Hackett of Nationwide said the prospect of more Russian diesel capped the move on 13 October, but that the deal is viewed with scepticism.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With front-month Brent flat in a $105–107 band, twelve straight records in 2027 contracts show the risk premium settling into the far end of the futures curve. The market is pricing not the end of the war but a lasting supply cost. That durably lifts producers' forward hedging prices and consumers' cost of securing supply in later years.
Likely effects
- US shalePositive1–6 months
2027 WTI at $84 lets producers lock in next year's output at higher prices, sending a signal in favour of drilling investment.
- Inflation expectationsNegative1–6 months
Record deferred oil prices feed expectations that energy will stay expensive in 2027, narrowing central banks' room to ease.
- Türkiye's energy billNegative6 months+
Brent's 2027 strip near $90 pushes up assumptions for next year's import bill, and multi-year supply contracts are priced higher.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Deferred prices stay high55%
2027 contracts hold above $80, and the gap between the front and back of the curve keeps narrowing.
Watch: The WTI 2027 calendar strip around $84
- 2Record run breaks, curve eases30%
The Russian diesel deal takes shape or Gulf flows strengthen, and 2027 contracts drop below $80.
Watch: News on implementation of the US–Russia diesel arrangement
- 3Front month jumps, curve steepens15%
A major loss of Gulf exports lifts the front month above $110 and the gap widens again.
Watch: The $110 threshold on December Brent
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- WTI 2027 calendar contract▼ ≈$84 (record)
- Brent Dec futures (13 Oct)▼ $105.69
Historical context
WTI crude oil (spot), last 6 months
- 122/09 · Brent falls from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 100.05 dollars on 22 September as Hormuz transit data conflict
- 225/09 · Brent–WTI spread widens from $7.97 to $11.91 in a week: WTI ends the week lower at $92.41, Brent flat at $104.32
- 325/09 · Iran offers to open Hormuz by the end of day 7 if the US blockade and oil sanctions are lifted; Rubio says no breakthrough, Brent closes 2.1% lower at $104.32
- 430/09 · Expiring November Brent settles $5 above the December contract