MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints25 September 2026, Friday

Brent–WTI spread widens from $7.97 to $11.91 in a week: WTI ends the week lower at $92.41, Brent flat at $104.32

According to Investing.com data, ICE Brent futures closed 25 September at $104.32 and WTI futures at $92.41; the gap between the two benchmarks rose from $7.97 on 21 September to $11.91. Brent ended the week just below its opening of $104.71, while WTI fell about 4.5% from its opening of $96.75.

Location: HORMUZ / OIL

According to Investing.com's historical data table, Brent futures closed at $100.34 on 21 September, $99.25 on 22 September, $103.08 on 23 September, $106.60 on 24 September and $104.32 on 25 September; Friday's decline was 2.14% and the intraday range was $103.11–106.59. Yahoo Finance's BZ=F series gives the same 25 September close of $104.32. WTI futures closed at $92.37, $90.52, $92.16, $94.61 and $92.41 on the same days; Friday's loss was 2.33%. On this basis, the Brent–WTI spread was $7.97, $8.73, $10.92, $11.99 and $11.91 respectively.

The weekly change is measured differently across sources: DTN's 25 September piece wrote that front-month WTI fell 7.5% on the week and diesel (ULSD) more than 8%, while Brent rose by less than 1%; in the Investing.com table, WTI's decline from its 21 September opening ($96.75) to Friday's close is about 4.5%. The difference may stem from contract rollover and from different starting points for the week. Straits.live's 26 September summary also gives Brent at $104.32 and WTI at $92.41, but shows the daily change as 2.24%. The widening spread indicates that maritime route risk tied to Hormuz and the Red Sea is being priced more heavily than the US domestic market.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

WTI's decline while Brent closed the week almost flat shows that the risk premium is concentrated in barrels delivered overseas. The $11.91 spread indicates that physical disruption tied to Hormuz and the Red Sea is being priced not as a passing news effect but as a structural geographic differential. Trump's rejection of Iran's 7-day plan on 26 September makes a near-term narrowing of the spread harder.

Likely effects

Oil importersNegativeWeeks
European and Asian countries buying on Brent-indexed terms face costs about $12 per barrel higher than buyers in the US.
TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Because Türkiye's import pricing is tied to Brent, the fall in WTI is not reflected in the energy bill; Brent at around $104 puts pressure on the current account deficit and fuel prices.
US exportsPositive1–6 months
The widening spread makes US crude more competitive for European and Asian buyers; this could support transatlantic export flows.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Spread stays above $1055%
The Hormuz blockage persists, Brent stays above $100 and WTI in the $90s, and the spread holds above $10.
Watch: The daily Brent–WTI closing spread from 28 September onwards
2
Spread narrows30%
A new phased package is negotiated with Iran or escorted exits increase, and the risk premium in Brent erodes faster than in WTI.
Watch: A new offer via the mediator channel and PortWatch transit counts
3
Spread widens further15%
A new facility or tanker attack in the Red Sea or Hormuz decouples Brent and the spread rises above $14.
Watch: UKMTO advisories and Houthi attacks around Yanbu

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Brent futures (25 Sep)▼ $104.32 (−2.14%)
WTI (25 Sep)▼ $92.41 (−2.33%)
Brent–WTI spread▲ $11.91

Historical context