Skip to content
The Suez Canal and surrounding desert and farmland seen from space

III Kinetic Conflicts & DefenceMiddle East and North Africa

GCC official says Russia could restrain Iran from attacking its neighbours

Suez Canal, Egypt — seen from the ISS (March 2016)Photo: NASA / Tim Kopra (ISS Expedition 46) · Public domain · Source
Institution
Arab News
Author
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg
Country · language
Gulf (Saudi Arabia) · English
Affiliation
Saudi English-language daily

Summary

Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, the Gulf Cooperation Council's Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Negotiation, calls on Russia to help contain the Iran war in a column published in Arab News on 21 October. The author's note says the piece reflects his own views, not those of the GCC. His starting point is the latest GCC–Russia Strategic Dialogue meeting in Bahrain, a format launched in November 2011. According to Aluwaisheg, GCC–Russia trade exceeded $24 billion in 2025, up roughly 60% in a year.

In the author's view, the two sides read the war very differently. In the US–Iran war that began on 28 February 2026, Russia blames Washington and plays down Iran's widening of the conflict through direct strikes and proxies. Aluwaisheg recalls that Russia abstained in March on UN Security Council Resolution 2817, which demanded that Iran halt its attacks on GCC states. He writes that Russia blocked a GCC draft focused on freedom of navigation in April 2026. Since then, he argues, the Council has been paralysed on Hormuz.

The author finds the Gulf security architecture that Lavrov restated in Tehran "even more fanciful" after 28 February, because Iran has exhausted trust by closing Hormuz and launching thousands of attacks. Aluwaisheg sets out 4 demands. Any security arrangement should wait until trust is rebuilt, and Russia should secure a commitment from Tehran to stop the attacks. Iran should restore the pre-war regime in Hormuz and rein in its proxies in Iraq and Yemen. He says half of the attacks on GCC states since 28 February were launched from Iraq.

Blind spot

The piece expects Moscow to press Iran without asking whether Russia has the interest or the capacity to do so; its 2026 partnership with Iran and its anti-US stance set the limits of the appeal. The role of the US and Israel in the war is mentioned only in noting that they were not hit. The author's senior GCC post makes the text read like an institutional message, despite the personal-views disclaimer.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The piece shows the GCC, eight months into the war, trying to bring major powers other than Washington into the diplomatic equation. Russia's stance in the March and April UN votes, however, suggests that Moscow has little appetite for pressing Iran. The most likely path is that GCC–Russia dialogue continues at the level of trade and contacts without producing anything concrete on Hormuz.

Likely effects

  • Hormuz and energy flowsNegative1–6 months

    Russia blocking the navigation draft at the UN keeps a multilateral route on Hormuz closed and prolongs the constraint on Gulf exports.

  • GCC–Russia relationsUncertain6 months+

    Trade above $24 billion in 2025 shows both sides have an interest in preserving ties despite their political differences.

  • UN Security CouncilNegative1–6 months

    Russia abstaining on Resolution 2817 and then blocking the next draft prevents the Council from playing an effective role in the war.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Dialogue continues, no results60%

    GCC–Russia contacts carry on, but Moscow applies no concrete pressure on Tehran.

    Watch: Any new Russian position at the UN on freedom of navigation in Hormuz

  2. 2
    Russia turns mediator25%

    Moscow secures a pledge from Tehran to stop attacks on the GCC and presents it as a diplomatic success.

    Watch: Announcement of Lavrov shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and GCC capitals

  3. 3
    Rift deepens15%

    Russia steps up its support for Iran and the GCC–Russia dialogue is suspended.

    Watch: Postponement of the next GCC–Russia Strategic Dialogue meeting

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: arabnews.com · 22 October 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.