
V Technology Geopolitics & AIAsia-Pacific
Southeast Asia needs AI exit options, not AI independence
- Institution
- ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (Fulcrum)
- Author
- Zenobia Chan
- Country · language
- Singapore · English
- Affiliation
- Government-linked research institute
Summary
Writing in Fulcrum, the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute's publication, on 5 October 2026, Zenobia Chan argues that Southeast Asian governments should abandon the goal of full AI independence. Chan teaches at Georgetown University and is a visiting fellow at ISEAS. In her view, most countries in the region cannot replicate the entire stack, from semiconductors and data centres to frontier models and software tools. Chasing that goal wastes resources and distracts from achievable aims. Instead she proposes AI resilience: the capacity to manage dependence on foreign technology through diversification and reversibility.
Chan rests resilience on three pillars. The first is keeping the option to switch providers alive. Governments should map dependencies at every layer of the stack, monitor exclusivity agreements, secure data access and export formats in contracts, and test portability before buying. The second is making systems work in the region's languages and conditions. Rather than each country training its own foundation model, that means shared datasets, benchmarks and local adaptation skills. The third is service continuity: small, locally runnable models in critical areas such as health, finance and transport that can step in if a foreign service is cut off. For data centre investments, she calls for scrutiny of ultimate ownership, operational control and which foreign laws apply. She suggests ASEAN develop shared language datasets, testing protocols, incident reporting systems and procurement templates.
Blind spot
What the West misses: the US–China tech contest is mostly framed as a question of whose stack will win. This piece shows that for middle-sized countries the real variable is the cost of exiting a provider. Weakness of this reading: it gives no hard data or cost figures, does not address severe scenarios such as export controls or a cut-off in chip access, and overstates ASEAN's capacity to agree on joint procurement.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The piece argues that the way to stop Southeast Asia locking into either the US or the Chinese AI stack is not a claim to sovereign models but contract and procurement discipline. The approach is cheap and workable. It is unclear, though, whether small local models would suffice in sudden shocks such as export controls or a service cut-off. The most likely direction is that governments in the region add portability and data access clauses to procurement rules.
Likely effects
- Cloud and model providersUncertain1–6 months
If portability and data export requirements enter public tenders, large providers' exclusivity and lock-in strategies become harder to sustain in the region.
- US–China rivalryUncertain6 months+
Countries in the region declining to commit to a single stack slows both powers' efforts to pull Southeast Asia into a technology bloc.
- Türkiye's AI policyPositive1–6 months
An approach built on exit options and local fallback models, rather than full independence, offers a workable framework for Türkiye's public sector AI procurement too.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Reflected in procurement rules50%
Some ASEAN countries, led by Singapore, add portability and data access requirements to public AI tenders.
Watch: A joint procurement or testing standard clause in decisions of the ASEAN digital ministers' meeting
- 2Sovereign model race continues35%
Governments keep prioritising national model and data centre projects, and the resilience framework takes a back seat.
Watch: New funding announcements for national large language models from countries in the region
- 3Drift to a single stack15%
US or Chinese incentives and price advantages push some countries into multi-year deals with a single provider.
Watch: An ASEAN government signing an exclusive AI infrastructure deal with a single foreign provider
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: fulcrum.sg · 5 October 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.