A Latin American reading of Plan México: entry into the semiconductor chain may be a new dependency stuck at 6% of the value

The North façade of the White House with its fountain — The White House, north façade, Washington (July 2007)Photo: Nishkid64 / Wikimedia Commons · Public domain · Source

Institution: Latinoamérica21
Author: Wendy Esther Morán Ortega
Country · language: Latin America (Mexico) · Spanish
Affiliation: Independent multi-author commentary site

Summary

In a piece published on 24 September in Latinoamérica21, Wendy Esther Morán Ortega, a researcher at the GIS Centre of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, argues that despite Plan México's promise of industrialisation in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, automotive and aerospace, it may lock the country into a low value-added assembly link in the United States' reorganisation of supply chains. According to the author, the plan aims to attract 10 billion dollars into assembly, test and packaging (ATP) activities; yet ATP accounts for only 6% of the value added in the semiconductor chain, while R&D takes 50–58% and wafer fabrication 24–36%. The author also notes that on 1 July 2026 the United States announced it would not renew the T-MEC (USMCA), introducing annual reviews until 2036 instead, which has increased Mexico's uncertainty.

Morán links the dynamic to US–China technology rivalry: while Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica are positioned as ATP hubs through the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act and the International Technology Security and Innovation Fund, TSMC's 2025 investment agreement exceeding 165 billion dollars in the United States keeps advanced manufacturing and design on US soil; design companies such as Apple, Intel and Nvidia are also concentrated in the United States. Reading Colombia's envisaged role as a rare earth supplier as a return of historical extractive dependency, and citing CEPAL's warning about development traps, the author concludes that accepting a purely assembly role would perpetuate productivity stagnation and institutional fragility in the region.

Blind spot

What the West misses: while nearshoring is told in the West as a success story for Latin America, this reading stresses that settling into a link holding 6% of the value added may be not industrialisation but a new dependency. The weakness of this reading: the piece does not discuss whether assembly could be a stepping stone to higher links, gives no current investment figures, and the T-MEC claim rests on a single source.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The piece's core figure, that ATP is only 6% of the chain's value, suggests that Plan México's 10 billion dollar target may point to a low-margin position rather than advanced industrialisation. The most likely direction is for Mexico to attract ATP investment while the move into design and wafer fabrication remains limited; the shift of the trade agreement to an annual review regime is an additional brake that sustains uncertainty for investors.

Likely effects

Semiconductor supply chainUncertain6 months+
The United States keeping advanced manufacturing and design on its own soil while steering assembly to Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica creates a new geographic split of the chain outside Asia.
Mexico's investment climateNegative1–6 months
The replacement of the T-MEC with annual reviews until 2036 may slow targeted investment by raising uncertainty in multi-year factory decisions.
Critical mineralsUncertain6 months+
Colombia's envisaged role as a rare earth supplier may spark new interest in extractive sectors in the region, along with accompanying environmental and governance debates.
Türkiye's industrial policyUncertain6 months+
For Türkiye's nearshoring and electronics investment goals, the Mexican case is a reminder that attracting assembly-focused investment does not by itself raise the share of value added.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Growth as an assembly hub55%
Mexico attracts ATP investment and assembly capacity grows, but R&D and wafer fabrication remain in the United States and Asia.
Watch: New semiconductor ATP plant announcements in Mexico and Plan México progress reports
2
Trade uncertainty brakes investment30%
The annual review regime and US policy volatility push companies to postpone decisions or turn to other countries.
Watch: The outcome of the first annual review of the US–Mexico trade agreement and foreign direct investment data for Mexico
3
Moving up the chain15%
Mexico succeeds in building design centres and a local supplier network beyond assembly, and its share of value added rises markedly.
Watch: An announcement of a chip design centre or wafer fabrication investment in Mexico

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: latinoamerica21.com · 24 September 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.