
I Geo-Economics & ChokepointsSub-Saharan Africa
ISS urges Africa to shape high seas treaty rules at COP1
- Institution
- Institute for Security Studies (ISS Today)
- Author
- David Willima, Arthur Tuda, Angelique Pouponneau, Jeremy Raguain
- Country · language
- South Africa · English
- Affiliation
- Independent think tank
Summary
The ISS piece of 29 October focuses on the first conference of the parties to the BBNJ Agreement, which governs marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction. This high seas treaty covers roughly two-thirds of the ocean. It passed the 60-ratification threshold and entered into force on 17 January; COP1 meets in New York on 11–22 January 2027. The authors argue that early procedural decisions, such as the secretariat, subsidiary bodies and funding rules, tend to stick. They cite Africa's rejection of an opaque process at the 1999 WTO ministerial in Seattle as a precedent.
According to the piece, Africa has 22 of the 104 parties, a 21% share. Because a new ratification takes effect 30 days after deposit, countries wishing to attend COP1 as parties must deposit their instruments by 12 December. Otherwise 32 African countries will have no say over the rules on finance, data and reporting. If consensus fails, decisions are taken by a two-thirds secret ballot, while benefit-sharing from marine genetic resources requires a three-quarters majority. A quarter of the members can block a 75% vote, and a third can block a two-thirds vote.
The authors highlight four decisions: the seat of the secretariat, for which China, Chile and Belgium are bidding; whether the Scientific and Technical Body can be elected at COP1; a proposed 35-member committee for the Special Fund, to be set up separately from the Global Environment Facility, and its rules; and whether genetic resources are treated as the 'common heritage of humankind'. The piece notes that the Convention on Biological Diversity's Cali Fund has received only 6,000 dollars from 2 companies since February 2025. Its recommendations are coordination among 4 regional seas conventions and expert capacity that can survive diplomatic rotation.
Blind spot
While the piece builds Africa's voting power in numbers, it does not discuss how China's bid for the secretariat intersects with African countries' debt and port ties to China. Nor does it measure the domestic legal and capacity hurdles facing 32 countries that must ratify by 12 December. It accepts that the fund rules will not operate for at least 2 years, but leaves open who will provide finance in the meantime.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
On the ISS reading, the contest over a share of high seas genetic resources will be settled in the procedural decisions of January 2027. Africa's 21% share confers blocking power, but only if the bloc acts together. In the near term the decisive date is 12 December; unless ratifications rise, 32 countries will watch the rules being written from outside.
Likely effects
- Marine genetic resourcesUncertain6 months+
Because benefit-sharing needs a three-quarters majority, a united African bloc could shape the sharing rules facing pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
- Development financeNegative1–6 months
A Special Fund that will not operate for at least 2 years, and a Cali Fund that has received only 6,000 dollars, point to delays in the resources promised to developing countries.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
The treaty's secretariat and rule design create a framework written by the first 104 parties, which later joiners such as Türkiye, active in high seas research, cannot change.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Partial African participation55%
A few more African countries ratify by 12 December, but most attend COP1 as observers.
Watch: The number of African ratifications in the UN treaty database as of 12 December
- 2The African bloc proves decisive30%
The African Union adopts a common position, nominates early candidates for the Scientific and Technical Body and gains weight over the fund rules.
Watch: Publication of an African Union common negotiating position ahead of COP1
- 3Procedural deadlock15%
The secretariat seat and body elections remain unresolved, and key decisions are pushed to COP2.
Watch: Whether a decision on the secretariat seat is taken at the end of COP1
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: issafrica.org · 29 October 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.