From New Delhi, the Gulf's Pakistan shield fails without economic resilience

Summary

In an ORF piece dated 15 October, Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati argues that the six monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council rest their security on two pillars. For military deterrence they rely on transactional defence pacts with Pakistan; for lasting commercial stability, on India's economic weight. In his view, the ongoing war has exposed the weakness of both. Through the Mecca Pact in August, Pakistan had implied it would respond to attacks spilling into Saudi Arabia, then said a military response against the Houthis was not on the table. The author links this retreat to dependence on the IMF, fuel austerity and Baloch concerns along the 550-mile border with Iran.

On India, the author sets out the vulnerability in numbers. Bilateral trade with the Gulf stands at $178.56bn, and the Indian diaspora in the Gulf numbers about 10 million. The closure of Hormuz pushed crude from about $69 a barrel to above $114. India has shifted up to 60% of its crude imports to routes avoiding Hormuz, but its strategic reserves, according to the author, cover only about seven days of consumption. The sinking of an Indian-flagged cargo ship off Yemen shows that commercial weight offers no protection without maritime security.

The author proposes that India build a non-offensive naval presence without joining Western strike coalitions. He suggests expanding independent naval deployments on the Operation Sankalp model and providing neutral escorts for merchant convoys with Gulf partners. He also calls for linking Gulf navies to the Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region and for drone defences at bypass points such as Oman's port of Duqm.