Caribbean chokepoints are exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks

Summary

Ricardo J. Sánchez is an economist with more than 35 years of experience in infrastructure and logistics. He wrote in the Expert Speak series of India-based ORF on 28 September 2026. In the article, he argues that the sea corridors of Latin America and the Caribbean are exposed to the combined impact of climate shocks and geopolitical disruption. The author's first example is the 2023–2024 Panama Canal crisis. During the drought, daily transits fell from 35–38 ships to 22 in December, and the maximum draught was cut from 50 feet to 44 feet. The full schedule of 36 transits a day was only restored in September 2024. According to Sánchez, Caribbean maritime connectivity has declined by 9% over the past decade.

The author examines the chokepoints one by one. More than 8,000 merchant ships a year pass through the Windward Passage, which is about 80 km wide, where 6.52 billion dollars of annual trade is at risk. In the 217 km-wide Yucatán Channel, the figure is 1.99 billion dollars. About 22 million people in the region live less than 6 metres above sea level, and more than half of island infrastructure lies within 500 metres of the coast. Fertiliser dependence is another vulnerability. Brazil imports 92% of its fertiliser and the region as a whole 85%, so a distant chokepoint such as Hormuz feeds through to Latin American agriculture. Sánchez makes three proposals. They are binding regional design standards for climate adaptation, a coordination desk sharing data on the passages, and joint strategic stocks of fertiliser, food and fuel.