CEBRI sees Brazil shifting beef from China's quota to the United States — Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (CEBRI)

The North façade of the White House with its fountain — The White House, north façade, Washington (July 2007)Photo: Nishkid64 / Wikimedia Commons · Public domain · Source

Institution: Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (CEBRI)
Author: Julia Soares, Lucas Gribel
Country · language: Brazil · Portuguese
Affiliation: Independent think tank

Summary

A 6 November trade note from Rio de Janeiro-based CEBRI argues that Brazilian beef is running into constraints in its two main markets at once. China launched a safeguard measure with country-specific quotas running from 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2028. Brazil's 2026 quota is 1.106 million tonnes, roughly a third below the 1.65 million tonnes it exported in 2025. The quota was filled on 29 September, and since 1 October any excess has paid an additional 55% tariff.

The monthly figures show the squeeze. Shipments to China fell from 158,300 tonnes in June to 16,100 tonnes in August and 10,900 tonnes in September. China's share of export value dropped from 52.9% to 42.5% over January–September. The quota grows by only about 2% a year, and the exporters' association ABIEC expects the 2027 quota to fill as early as March or April. In the EU, Brazil has been off the list of approved animal product exporters since 3 September, on the grounds that it could not demonstrate control over antimicrobial use. That market was worth $912.2 million in 2025, or 5.5% of total beef exports.

The note also looks at who is filling the gap. Export volume fell 1.5% in January–September, but value rose 14.1% to $12.97 billion. Sales to the United States jumped 82.9% to $1.72 billion; sales to Chile rose 55% and to Russia 52.5%. Rival Argentina had used about 67% of its own China quota by September. Brazil sold nothing to Japan in January–September; ABIEC is in talks to open the Japanese, South Korean and Turkish markets.

Blind spot

The note does not question whether the US surge will last: the American market looks open in its tables, yet tariff policy is a separate risk for Brazil. It does not analyse how revenue per tonne has changed in non-Chinese markets. The cost of the individual animal traceability the EU demands is not given, and the timeline rests on a single EU official's estimate. The content and timetable of talks with Türkiye are absent.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Brazil weathered China's safeguard quota and the EU ban without losing value: export revenue rose 14.1% in January–September. But the constraint is structural. China's quota grows by only 2% a year, and the 2027 quota is expected to fill by March or April. That means greater reliance, for most of each year, on markets such as the United States that carry tariff risk. The most likely path is a shift in volumes towards the US, Chile and the Gulf.

Likely effects

Global beef tradeUncertain1–6 months
If China's quota fills early every year, Brazil's surplus supply will head to the US, Chile and Russia, sharpening competition with Australia and Argentina in those markets.
Brazil's external trade riskNegative1–6 months
With China's share down to 42.5% and the US share up to 13.27%, US tariff decisions are becoming a larger risk item for Brazilian beef exports.
Mercosur–EU agreementUncertain6 months+
The 99,000-tonne Mercosur quota is effectively unusable for Brazil until the ban is lifted; Argentina, still on the EU list, may be its main beneficiary.
Türkiye's meat importsUncertain6 months+
The note records ABIEC talks to open the Turkish market; an opening would bring a large new supplier into Türkiye's red meat imports.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Volumes shift to the US and the Gulf55%
China's quota fills early again in 2027; export value is held up by the US, Chilean and Gulf markets.
Watch: MOFCOM's 2027 quota utilisation notices and the date the 80% threshold is reached
2
The EU door reopens25%
Brazil establishes individual animal traceability, returns to the EU list and takes a share of the Mercosur quota.
Watch: An EU decision amending Implementing Regulation 2026/1189
3
The US door narrows too20%
Washington restricts Brazilian beef through tariffs or quotas, compensation outside China weakens and total export value falls.
Watch: A tariff decision covering beef in the USTR Section 301 investigation

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: cebri.org · 11 November 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.