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VI Energy Politics & Supply SecurityMiddle East and North Africa

The National says ADNOC's 60 billion dirham push could lift UAE manufacturing

Suez Canal, Egypt — seen from the ISS (March 2016)Photo: NASA / Tim Kopra (ISS Expedition 46) · Public domain · Source
Institution
The National — editorial
Author
Institutional publication
Country · language
UAE (Gulf) · English
Affiliation
Abu Dhabi-based daily newspaper

Summary

Abu Dhabi's The National writes in its 26 October editorial that the UAE's industrial strategy will be judged by the factories built, the skilled jobs created and the quality of locally made goods. At the 2nd Make it with ADNOC Forum in Abu Dhabi on 25 October, the national oil company set out more than 60 billion dirhams of local manufacturing opportunity to 2030. ADNOC also announced changes to procurement, supplier registration and in-country value rules that make it easier for manufacturers to bid for work.

The editorial recalls that Operation 300bn, launched by the Ministry of Industry in 2021, aims to raise industry's contribution to GDP from 133 billion dirhams to 300 billion dirhams by 2031. By the paper's account, the in-country value programme ADNOC began in 2018 has channelled more than 307 billion dirhams into the national economy. The company has signed roughly 80 billion dirhams of offtake agreements for local manufacturing. At the 1st forum in May it set out a plan to tender 200 billion dirhams of projects over 2026–2028.

The editorial board argues that Covid-19 and the war with Iran showed why domestic industry matters in reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. Success, it says, rests above all on whether small and medium-sized enterprises can reach finance, contracts and modern technology. The paper points to the Make it in the Emirates event of May 2027 as the next stop at which progress will be measured.

Blind spot

The editorial does not question the fact that ADNOC's chief executive, Sultan Al Jaber, is also Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, so that buyer and regulator sit in the same hands. It does not separate how much of the 60 billion dirham opportunity is new ordering and how much is a repackaging of existing plans. A related link on the page speaks of 16.3 billion dollars while the body uses 60 billion dirhams, and the gap goes unexplained.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Gulf's biggest oil company is turning the reshoring of its supply chain into an instrument of industrial policy in wartime. The 60 billion dirham opportunity and the looser tender rules give domestic manufacturers a guarantee of demand. The most likely path is that investment stays largely tied to ADNOC's own purchasing, while competitive export capacity forms more slowly.

Likely effects

  • UAE industryPositive6 months+

    Multi-year offtake commitments make domestic factory investment financeable and feed the 300 billion dirham target.

  • Foreign suppliersNegative1–6 months

    As the in-country value score carries more weight in tenders, the share held by importers of equipment and services narrows.

  • TürkiyeUncertain6 months+

    A local production requirement in the UAE could push Turkish manufacturers selling into the Gulf towards joint production or investment on site.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Gradual localisation60%

    New factories open on ADNOC orders while the export share stays limited.

    Watch: Investment and employment figures announced at the Make it in the Emirates event of May 2027

  2. 2
    Rapid scaling25%

    In-country value rules speed smaller firms into tenders and domestic products open up to regional export.

    Watch: New ADNOC offtake agreements clearly exceeding 80 billion dirhams

  3. 3
    Drift from the targets15%

    Swings in oil revenue and the risk of war push investment decisions back.

    Watch: An announced delay in ADNOC's 2026–2028 tender plan

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: thenationalnews.com · 26 October 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.