Black Sea war premiums outstrip the tanker war, sparing only coastal waters

The premium ceiling has broken

UkrAgroConsult, citing The Insurer on 9 November, reported that war premiums on the riskiest Black Sea voyages have reached 20% of hull value. A war premium is the additional charge paid on top of standard cover when a ship enters a listed conflict zone. The same report says that in the Iran–Iraq tanker war of the 1980s the rate was around 7.5% and only occasionally topped 10%. For a $20 million tanker, 20% means $4 million for a single voyage; the calculation is Talay's.

The figure needs to be sized correctly. The 20% was quoted only for some ships calling at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at Novorossiysk, and most quotes were well below it. The report gives no average rate per voyage; a November average could not be verified. The headline therefore shows not the whole market but the extreme point at which insurers are close to shutting the door.

Why the CPC terminal

According to a chronology compiled by The Times of Central Asia, tankers bound for CPC came under drone attack on 13 January 2026, and on 14 March a tanker was struck outside Russian territorial waters. In July 2026 there were attacks around the terminal on 17, 19, 20, 23 and 30 July. On 8 September a drone incident briefly halted loading at two buoys. CPC carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and moved 64.8 million tonnes in 2025.

For insurers, the problem is the location of attacks as much as their frequency. Tankers are now being hit not only at the terminal but on the open-sea leg of the route, as the 14 March incident shows. That pulls stretches far from the terminal into the pricing too. On 25 August Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry cut its 2026 output plan from 98 million to 96 million tonnes, blaming the attacks for a loss of about 3.5 million tonnes.

The cost spreads across the basin

UkrAgroConsult reported on 3 November that from 9 November CMA CGM is charging a $35-per-TEU war risk surcharge on all cargo to and from Black Sea countries. A TEU is the standard 20-foot container unit. The surcharge covers cargo on third-party feeder services as well as the company's own. The report names Constanța and Poti, where Ukrainian cargo is transhipped; whether Turkish ports are included could not be verified.

This break shows the premium moving from ships entering the war zone onto container cargo across the whole basin. The same report says the Joint War Committee added almost the entire Black Sea to its high-risk list on 16 September. The area left off the list is the territorial waters of four countries: Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia. As we wrote in October, the shift of trade onto this coastal strip is a direct result of where the list draws its line.

Ankara's hand

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called on 7 November, at the TRT World Forum in Istanbul, for a global initiative to protect maritime chokepoints, naming three: the Black Sea, Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Fidan cited the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative as proof that diplomacy can deliver while fighting continues. No new agreement text or timetable was announced. Russia's Defence Ministry said it struck bulk and container ships near Odesa and Chornomorsk on 7–8 November; the ships' names and number could not be verified.

Ankara's tool is the Straits. According to a Bloomberg report carried by USM, the Coast Guard said on 8 August that some ships bound for Novorossiysk would be refused transit permission or delayed. As of 13:00 that day, ships bound for Bulgarian and Turkish ports were still passing north through the Dardanelles. This selective brake is also a way of protecting the exemption for Turkish territorial waters: risk-carrying voyages are slowed at the Straits.

The exemption has a price. RFI reported on 21 September that grain prices had risen by up to 30%, and that ships staying out of the Black Sea face mooring and crew costs of up to €50,000 a month. Turkish owners gain on traffic that stays within the coastal strip and lose by missing out on high war-zone freight. If a single attack lands inside territorial waters, the chance of the Joint War Committee widening its map is Talay's biggest tail risk.