MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI22 October 2026, Thursday
US Treasury moves to curb American investment in Chinese biotech
The US Treasury published a draft rule on 22 October that widens its outbound investment screening programme and adds biotechnology to the prohibited or notifiable sectors. Public comments are open until 7 December 2026; pharmaceutical licensing deals are largely left outside its scope.
According to the Treasury's 22 October statement, the draft implements the COINS Act, passed in December 2025 as part of the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. Beyond semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum, high-performance computing and hypersonic systems, the rule uses the Secretary's discretion to cover biotechnology, taking the number of sectors to 6. AP counts the newly covered areas differently, listing 4: supercomputing, artificial intelligence, hypersonics and biotechnology. BioPharm International says the countries of concern are China, including Hong Kong and Macau, Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Russia.
The biotech definition is broad. It takes in biologically derived compounds, brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing equipment, sequencing and biological design technologies, and bioinformatics tools. Equity acquisitions, convertible debt, joint ventures, greenfield investments and some fund investments are covered. AP reports that the rule will apply only to investments above 50,000 dollars, and that many financial investments, such as buying listed shares, will be exempt. Pure licensing deals fall outside the rule, but arrangements involving the transfer of technology or know-how do not qualify for the exemption.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the draft would strengthen the existing programme. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the concept of national security was being overstretched and that Beijing would take the necessary measures. Bloomberg reports that Beijing proposed a week earlier to add several biomedical technologies to its own export control list, while explicitly allowing pharmaceutical licensing deals to continue. In July the Treasury fined a US company 200,000 dollars for failing to report a 92,500-dollar investment in a Chinese AI and robotics firm.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Washington is shifting pressure onto the capital channel without touching the trade truce, which has been extended to January. Adding biotech narrows Chinese companies' access to US venture capital and joint ventures while leaving the licensing channel open. The rule's final scope hinges on the comment process closing on 7 December and on the APEC talks of 18–19 November.
Likely effects
- Chinese biotech fundingNegative1–6 months
Covering equity, joint ventures and fund investments narrows Chinese biotech companies' access to US venture capital.
- US drugmakersUncertain1–6 months
With pure licensing deals exempt, US drugmakers can keep in-licensing Chinese-origin molecules; joint-venture structures, however, carry risk.
- US–China bargainingNegativeWeeks
Beijing's complaint that national security is being overstretched could become a matter for retaliation or bargaining before APEC.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Rule finalised in narrower form55%
After the comment period the pharmaceutical provisions are narrowed while biomanufacturing and sequencing stay in; the final rule lands in 2027.
Watch: Industry comments filed by 7 December and the Treasury's timetable for a final rule
- 2Scope widens and Beijing hits back30%
The final rule stays broad, China tightens biomedical export controls and licensing flows slow.
Watch: The final version of China's biomedical export control list
- 3Shelved in APEC bargaining15%
The truce is widened at the Shenzhen talks and the biotech rule is postponed.
Watch: Any reference to investment curbs in a joint statement after APEC on 18–19 November
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Technology sectors covered▼ 6
- Investment threshold▼ $50,000
- Comment deadline▲ 7 December
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury — Treasury Issues Proposed Rule to Implement Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act
- PBS NewsHour (AP) — Treasury proposes rule to curb high-tech investments in China and other adversaries
- BioPharm International — Treasury Proposes Adding Biotech to Outbound Investment Restrictions Under COINS Act
- Taipei Times (Bloomberg) — US moots curbs on funds to Chinese biotech firms