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MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security5 November 2026, Thursday

Two of three Russian diesel tankers bound for the US change course

Two of the 3 tankers that left Primorsk for the US under the Trump–Putin diesel deal have changed course, the Financial Times reported on 4 November, citing Kpler data. Kremlin envoy Dmitriev denied the report on 5 November, while Peskov said all the diesel would find buyers.

Location: PRIMORSK

AFP, citing MarineTraffic and Kpler data, said the sanctioned Talisman passed through the English Channel on 29 October, entered the Mediterranean via Gibraltar on 3 November and was off Tunisia on 5 November. The vessel had been due on the US East Coast on 9 November; Kpler says it carries 324,000 barrels of diesel and has no destination port. Leruo listed Brazil as its destination. Sources differ on the third ship, Agioi Fanendes: AFP says it showed New York and was due to berth on 7 November, while AP says its destination changed to awaiting orders.

The constraint lies with buyers, not the seller. AP reports that New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill warned port and terminal operators of heavy penalties if they unload Russian fuel; the OFAC waiver, meanwhile, runs until 7 April. According to the Moscow Times, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee asked banks and port operators to preserve documents; Democrats take over Congress in January. The deal envisaged a first cargo of 300,000 tonnes, rising to 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that.

The Moscow Times, citing Reuters, reported that Türkiye said on 18 October it was negotiating a share of the Russian diesel. According to Bloomberg HT, diesel prices in Türkiye fell by 5.44 lira a litre on 7 November, to 95.09 lira on Istanbul's European side. A 324,000-barrel cargo is awaiting orders in the Mediterranean after failing to find a US buyer. That raises the chance that Russian product heads to nearby markets at a discount; this is a Talay inference and has not been verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The bottleneck in the diesel deal is not the licence in Washington but legal risk at US ports. Russian cargoes that cannot find buyers are turning towards the Mediterranean and Latin America, making it harder for the deal's November target of 500,000 tonnes to reach the US. The most likely path is that the deal survives on paper while most of the volume flows to third countries.

Likely effects

  • Russian export revenueNegativeWeeks

    Cargoes that cannot reach the US go to discounted markets; Moscow does not fully capture the price and political gains it expected from the deal.

  • Mediterranean diesel supplyPositiveWeeks

    Cargoes diverted to the Mediterranean add to regional diesel supply and may put downward pressure on product margins.

  • TürkiyePositive1–6 months

    For Türkiye, which has been negotiating a share, Russian diesel waiting in nearby waters adds an extra supply option and bargaining room ahead of winter.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Volume shifts to third countries55%

    A few cargoes reach the US, but most of the November volume is sold to the Mediterranean, Brazil and Asia.

    Watch: Kpler data on discharge ports for Russian diesel

  2. 2
    US deliveries continue25%

    Agioi Fanendes discharges in New York, new buyers emerge and the November tranche largely reaches the US.

    Watch: Agioi Fanendes unloading its cargo in New York

  3. 3
    The deal collapses20%

    State penalties and congressional pressure drive US buyers out entirely, leaving the White House waiver a dead letter.

    Watch: A lawsuit or congressional move against the OFAC waiver

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Tankers changing course▼ 2/3
  • Talisman cargo▼ 324k barrels
  • TR diesel (7 Nov)▲ −5.44 lira/litre

Sources

  1. Arab News (AFP) — Russia says US oil shipments on course as two vessels head elsewhere
  2. ClickOnDetroit (AP) — Tankers carrying Russian diesel change course, raising doubts about shipments to US
  3. The Moscow Times — Russian Diesel Tankers Bound for U.S. Change Course, Casting Doubt on Trump Deal
  4. Bloomberg HT — Diesel price cut takes effect
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