HighVI Energy Politics & Supply Security2 October 2026, Friday
Iran loads no crude at all in September under US blockade
Iran loaded no crude at all in September, according to satellite-based tracking by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa; in August the figure was about 250,000 barrels a day. It is the first time shipments have fallen to zero since the war began in February.
According to data cited by Briefs on 1 October, all 3 independent trackers reported the same zero figure for September. Kpler data published by Gulf News on 2 October show Iranian loadings falling from 893,000 barrels a day in July to 156,000 in mid-August. The 2 sources differ on August: one gives about 250,000 barrels a day for the month, the other 156,000 for mid-month. The measurement periods may differ, and the discrepancy could not be resolved.
According to Gulf News, the problem is not confined to exports. With storage full, Iran may have to cut output to about 1.8 million barrels a day, barely enough to meet domestic consumption; this is an estimate and could not be verified against official production data. According to Briefs, Iran kept supplying China in September from floating storage east of Singapore, but with no new barrels arriving that stock is also running down. Briefs recorded September as the first month since the war began in February in which shipments fell to zero. The same report said Iranian officials do not expect a deal before the US midterm elections in November.
Rival producers, meanwhile, have restored the flow. According to Kpler data cited by Gulf News, regional crude exports excluding Iran rose to 19.5 million barrels a day in the last week of September, against a pre-war level of 17 million. Saudi crude shipments rose from about 2.45 million barrels a day in August to 5.4 million in September. About 40% of the region's crude now bypasses Hormuz, against 17% before the war.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The blockade has reduced Iran's exports to zero, and the constraint is now reaching production: once storage fills, wells shut. In the same month Gulf rivals pushed exports above pre-war levels, eroding the value of the Hormuz card every month. The most likely path is that Iran cuts output to the level of domestic consumption, but the risk of Tehran escalating in the strait rises as its leverage fades.
Likely effects
- Iran's public revenueNegativeWeeks
Zero loadings squeeze an oil-dependent budget and the rial directly; if floating storage runs out, sales to China stop too.
- Gulf producersPositive1–6 months
Saudi shipments more than doubling shows the share Iran has lost passing to rival producers.
- Supply balance and pricesPositiveWeeks
Regional exports of 19.5 million barrels a day offset the Iranian shortfall, acting as a counterweight that limits the war premium in prices.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
Recovering Gulf supply eases Türkiye's crude sourcing, but Iranian escalation in the strait could quickly reverse that gain.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Blockade holds, output is cut55%
Iran fails to load in October as well and cuts output to the level of domestic consumption.
Watch: Kpler and Vortexa data on Iranian loadings for October
- 2Tehran escalates in the strait30%
With its leverage fading, Iran steps up tanker attacks in Hormuz to try to cut off rivals' flows.
Watch: UKMTO's weekly count of vessels hit in Hormuz
- 3Deal and partial opening15%
Qatari mediation succeeds and Iranian loadings resume on a limited scale.
Watch: A US Treasury or White House statement on easing the blockade
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Iran's September crude loadings▼ 0
- Regional exports, last week of Sept▲ 19.5m b/d
- Saudi September shipments▲ 5.4m b/d