MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security22 October 2026, Thursday
Qatar turns to US LNG after damage at Ras Laffan
On 22 October QatarEnergy signed a deal with Cheniere to buy 4 million tonnes a year of US LNG until 2054. Deliveries start in 2031; 17% of Qatar's own export capacity has been offline since the March attacks.
According to gCaptain, the deal comprises two separate contracts. The Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas will each supply 2 million tonnes a year of LNG, or liquefied natural gas. Cargoes will be sold free on board, priced at Henry Hub, the US gas benchmark, plus a fixed fee. One million tonnes a year of the Sabine Pass volume depends on a final investment decision on the first phase of the terminal's expansion.
Lost capacity lies behind the deal. gCaptain reports that Iran's missile strikes in March damaged 2 liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan with a combined 12.8 million tonnes of annual capacity. That is roughly 17% of Qatar's export capacity. Repairs are expected to take 3 to 5 years, at an annual revenue loss of around 20 billion dollars.
A Reuters report carried by BOE Report says the Sabine Pass expansion could add up to 20 million tonnes a year, lifting the terminal's total capacity above 50 million tonnes. gCaptain puts Cheniere's operating capacity at its two plants at about 56 million tonnes a year, with 5 million more under construction. Qatar's 4 million tonnes will not fill the Ras Laffan gap before 2031. The deal works instead as insurance, moving part of Qatar's portfolio outside Hormuz.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
By tying its supply portfolio to the United States, Qatar has accepted that it cannot recover 17% of its capacity for at least 3 years. The deal does not close the near-term gap, but it shows Gulf producers are now pricing Hormuz risk into their contract structures. The likeliest path is other Gulf producers seeking similar supply from outside the strait.
Likely effects
- Global LNGUncertain6 months+
Qatar moving to the buy side lifts demand for multi-decade US supply contracts; an investment decision on the Sabine Pass expansion could come sooner.
- European and Asian buyersNegative1–6 months
The Ras Laffan shortfall lasts until 2031; spot LNG demand stays high before winter and price pressure persists.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
With Qatari supply tight until 2031, spot buyers such as Türkiye may become more reliant on US and Atlantic cargoes.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Diversification spreads55%
Gulf producers and Asian buyers sign new multi-year contracts with sources outside Hormuz.
Watch: New Gulf-based offtake deals at US LNG projects
- 2One-off move30%
Ras Laffan repairs accelerate and Qatar makes no further purchases from outside the strait.
Watch: QatarEnergy announcing a repair timetable for the damaged trains
- 3Contract expands15%
The Sabine Pass investment decision is taken and Qatar raises volumes or brings deliveries forward.
Watch: Cheniere announcing a final investment decision on the Sabine Pass expansion
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Annual offtake (mn tonnes)▲ 4
- Ras Laffan capacity lost▼ 17%
- First deliveries▲ 2031