MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 October 2026, Thursday

A dark fleet of 230 tankers now carries Gulf crude

Independent owners are pulling out of Gulf loadings despite very high freight rates, and exports are now carried by a fleet of about 230 tankers, according to ship-tracking firm Windward. Gulf national oil companies own 36% of the fleet, and 70% of it has switched off location signals in the past 3 months.

Location: GULF OF OMAN

Windward's report of 28 October says 80% of the fleet are VLCCs (very large crude carriers) and 10% are Aframax or LR2 class, with an average age of 12 years. A South Korean owner is the beneficial owner of about 28% of the fleet, and Gulf national oil companies of 36%. Some 40% of the ships fly the Liberian flag and 11% the Marshall Islands flag. Over the past 3 months, 70% of the fleet went through AIS dark periods averaging 12 days; for 10%, the gap exceeded 4 weeks. The tankers carry crude loaded at terminals west of Hormuz to ship-to-ship transfer points off the UAE and Oman.

Preliminary Vortexa data cited by MarineLink on 29 October show about 11 million barrels a day of crude loaded west of Hormuz in October, excluding Iran. The figure was 1.56 million in May and 14.5 million before the war. Windward estimates the fleet ties up 15–20% of the world VLCC fleet at any one time. The registered owner of 15% of the fleet changed in the past 3 months, and one Gulf national shipping company spent about 2 billion dollars on vessels. According to Braemar, Oman–Asia freight stood at about 15 dollars a barrel on 23 October.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The recovery of Gulf exports to three-quarters of pre-war levels is the work of a state-linked fleet, not the commercial shipping market. That fleet passes through the door that war premiums and cancellation clauses have closed, but it carries the risk on its own balance sheet. The most likely path is that flows continue and global VLCC supply stays tight; a single sinking could upset that balance.

Likely effects

Tanker freightNegative1–6 months
While 15–20% of the world VLCC fleet remains tied to the Gulf, tanker supply on other routes tightens and freight rates stay high.
Gulf national companiesNegative1–6 months
Vessel purchases and uninsured risk divert part of oil revenue into capital spending and provisions for possible losses.
TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Freight on Gulf cargoes holding near 15 dollars a barrel keeps the cost added to headline prices high for Türkiye's crude and LPG imports.

Possibilities, ranked

1
The fleet carries the flow55%
The dark fleet grows, exports hold around 11 million barrels a day and freight stays elevated.
Watch: Vortexa's November Gulf export data and Windward's fleet count
2
Attacks slow the fleet30%
Mine and projectile attacks hit the fleet, national companies cut voyages and exports fall back.
Watch: UKMTO incident reports and confirmed losses in the dark fleet
3
Independent owners return15%
War premiums fall, independent owners return to loadings and the fleet's share shrinks.
Watch: The Hormuz war premium falling below 3%

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Gulf exports (Vortexa)▲ 11m bbl/day
Share of VLCC fleet tied up▼ 15–20%
Oman–Asia freight▼ ~$15/bbl

Historical context