MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security29 October 2026, Thursday
QatarEnergy locks in 7 million tonnes of LNG from outside the Gulf
On 29 October QatarEnergy signed a deal to take 3 million tonnes a year of LNG from Woodside's US facilities for 20 years. Together with last week's agreements with Cheniere, the company has secured 7 million tonnes a year of supply from outside the Gulf in 2 weeks.
Chief executive Saad Sherida al-Kaabi told Reuters the strategy was built around a scenario in which Hormuz closes, and that it requires no capital spending. According to the report carried by gCaptain, the 2 deals signed with Cheniere last week provide for deliveries of up to 4 million tonnes a year from Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi until 2054. Deliveries are not expected to begin before 2031. Kaabi said the goal was well above 7 million tonnes but gave no figure. Reuters reports advanced talks with Venture Global on a 3 million tonne-a-year deal, which has not yet been signed.
MarineLink reports that Iran's March strikes damaged 2 of the 14 LNG trains at Ras Laffan, knocking out 12.8 million tonnes a year of capacity, or 17% of export capacity. Repairs are expected to take about 3 years, and until then output is capped at roughly 83% of pre-war levels. QatarEnergy has extended to the end of 2026 the force majeure it declared on 4 March. Qatar supplies about a fifth of global LNG exports, all of which passes through Hormuz, and the company operates around 200 LNG carriers.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Qatar is insulating an export business that depends entirely on an uninsurable strait that can be shut, using contracts sourced outside the Gulf. The move adds no supply today, since Cheniere deliveries do not start before 2031. It does show the company now prices a Hormuz disruption as a permanent scenario. The most likely path is further non-Gulf deals through the end of the year.
Likely effects
- LNG marketUncertain6 months+
Qatar adding multi-decade demand for US LNG eases financing for US export projects and reduces the Gulf's weight in global supply.
- European and Asian gasNegative1–6 months
Ras Laffan's 17% capacity loss and force majeure running to the end of 2026 keep LNG supply tight ahead of winter.
- TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Non-Gulf sources are taking a larger share of Türkiye's LNG purchases, while competition with Europe for US cargoes keeps prices high.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The portfolio widens60%
QatarEnergy signs further non-Gulf deals by year-end, including one with Venture Global.
Watch: Signature of the 3 million tonne deal with Venture Global
- 2Peace slows the strategy25%
A ceasefire reopens Hormuz, Qatar raises output within a week and new purchase deals slow.
Watch: Iran's reply to the Qatari draft and the lifting of force majeure
- 3Ras Laffan is hit again15%
Escalation after 3 November makes Ras Laffan a target once more and deepens the capacity loss.
Watch: Qatari and Iranian statements and reports of attacks on Ras Laffan
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Non-Gulf LNG contracts▲ 7mt/yr
- Ras Laffan capacity loss▼ 17%
- Force majeure until▼ end-2026