MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints23 September 2026, Wednesday
Libya's blockade spreads to refining: guards halt the 120,000-barrel Zawiya refinery, while losses of 130,000 barrels a day continue on the Sharara line
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on 23 September that the Petroleum Facilities Guard had cut off access to the Zawiya refinery and Brega Petroleum Marketing, and that the refinery had stopped. Valve No. 7 on the Sharara line also remains closed; the NOC repeated that it may declare force majeure.
According to the NOC's 23 September statement, members of the guard unit blocked access to the Zawiya refinery and the Brega Petroleum Marketing Company; the statement, reported by Arab News, said the action had halted the entry of workers and technicians and the handover of the night shift, and that the refinery could be completely paralysed. Arab News wrote that Zawiya is Libya's second-largest refinery and that partial access to Brega had been granted. According to SEE News, the refinery's capacity is about 120,000 barrels a day, and the country's theoretical total refining capacity about 380,000 barrels. The guards had closed the refinery's main gate on 13 September and, on 15 September, shut the valve on the Hamada–Zawiya pipeline, halting the Hamada and Tahara fields.
The crisis is also deepening on the crude side: valve No. 7 on the Sharara line, closed on 21 September, remained shut as of 23 September. According to SEE News, this means a loss of 130,000 barrels a day at Sharara, which produced 335,000 barrels a day in August, or about 9% of national output; at 100 dollars a barrel it puts the daily revenue loss at about 13 million dollars (this estimate has not been confirmed by the NOC). The guards are demanding that their financial and administrative affiliation be transferred from the Defence Ministry to the NOC according to a timetable. Oil and gas account for 97% of Libya's public revenue; oil revenue reached 96.1 billion dinars in January–August 2026. In 2026 Libya signed exploration agreements with companies including Turkish Petroleum.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The guards' pressure has moved from crude oil fields to refining and fuel distribution, meaning the crisis now threatens domestic fuel supply as well as export revenue. Because the demand is technical and institutional (transferring affiliation to the NOC), it can be resolved through bargaining; but if Tripoli cannot offer a quick timetable, a force majeure declaration and wider field closures are likely.
Likely effects
- Libyan domestic fuel supplyNegativeWeeks
Disruption at the Zawiya refinery, with capacity of about 120,000 barrels a day, and at Brega's distribution could create fuel queues and a need for imports in western Libya.
- Public financesNegative1–6 months
97% of public revenue depends on oil; the longer the loss of 130,000 barrels a day at Sharara lasts, the greater the risk of delays to salary and subsidy payments.
- Oil supplyNegativeWeeks
If a force majeure declaration is added to a valve closure cutting about 9% of national output, buyers will seek substitutes and the supply-side risk premium will rise with oil near 100 dollars a barrel.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
The exploration agreements signed by Turkish Petroleum in 2026 bring the operational risk that repeated guard blockades pose for foreign investors directly onto Türkiye's agenda.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Partial reopening through bargaining50%
Tripoli announces a timetable for transferring the guards to the NOC; the refinery and valve reopen gradually within a few days.
Watch: The NOC announcing that operations have resumed at the Zawiya refinery
- 2Force majeure and wider closures35%
The NOC declares force majeure and the guards extend the shutdowns to fields such as Wafa and El Feel.
Watch: The NOC's official force majeure notice
- 3Prolonged domestic fuel crisis15%
The refinery stays closed for weeks and western Libya turns to fuel imports and the black market.
Watch: Reports of fuel queues in Tripoli and Zawiya
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Zawiya refinery capacity▼ ~120k b/d
- Sharara output loss▼ 130k b/d