MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt26 October 2026, Monday
Russian companies defer supplier payments as the cash squeeze deepens
Expert RA puts the trade debt of Russian companies at 155 trillion roubles as of June, up 32 trillion roubles in a year. That is the largest 12-month increase since 2004, and the share of large companies paying late has risen to 23.8%.
In its debt market report of 21 October, the rating agency Expert RA puts corporate trade debt, meaning unpaid supplier invoices, at 155 trillion roubles as of June. The rise of 32 trillion roubles over 12 months is the steepest since 2004. Bank loan debt grew 12% over the same period and bond debt 13%. The Moscow Times reported on 26 October that trade debt expanded at roughly twice the pace of those two items.
On Expert RA's calculation from SPARK data, 17.3% of large companies paid up to 60 days late in the second quarter and 6.5% later than 60 days. For mid-sized companies the figures are 14.3% and 6.2%. The Moscow Times puts the combined late share at 23.8% for large companies, up from 20.8% a year earlier, and at 20.6% for mid-sized firms, up from 17.4%. Corporate profits fell 13.3% year on year in the first half of 2026, while the share of loss-making companies climbed from 28% to 34% over 2 years.
The Central Bank of Russia held its rate at 14% on 23 October and raised its forecast for the 2027 average to 12.5–13.5%. Expert RA expects at least 3% of bond issuers, or no more than 25 issuers, to default for the first time in 2027. The agency puts the value of those defaults at no more than 1% of the market. The risk of a domino effect nonetheless grows as unpaid suppliers fail to meet their own obligations.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
High rates are pushing Russian companies to borrow from their suppliers instead of their banks, because paying a supplier late costs less than drawing credit. That shows the central bank's 14% rate building hidden debt in the payment chain rather than in the credit channel. The most likely path is not a systemic crisis but selective defaults among weaker issuers, spread through 2027.
Likely effects
- Russian bond marketNegative1–6 months
Expert RA expects up to 25 first-time defaults in 2027; borrowing costs rise for the weaker issuers.
- Monetary policyUncertain1–6 months
As the payment chain tightens, pressure on the central bank to cut grows, but the inflation constraint is still in place.
- War economyNegative1–6 months
Profits down 13.3% and a loss-making share of 34% strain tax receipts and the financing of the budget.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Selective defaults55%
Delays lengthen, defaults stay confined to weaker issuers and large companies keep their bank funding.
Watch: The monthly count of defaults in the Russian bond market and the central bank financial stability report
- 2Early easing30%
The central bank cites payment chain risk and cuts the rate in December.
Watch: The Russian central bank rate decision on 18 December
- 3Domino effect15%
A payment stoppage in a major supply chain spreads to the banks and a state support programme is opened.
Watch: A jump in the share of large companies more than 60 days late, in SPARK data
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Trade debt (June 2026)▲ 155 trn roubles
- Large firms paying late▲ 23.8%