MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI28 October 2026, Wednesday
Ukraine names 49 entities behind Russia's Starlink rival Rassvet
Ukraine's military intelligence agency HUR on 28 October published 49 Russian and Belarusian entities involved in Rassvet, Russia's low Earth orbit satellite communications system. According to HUR, 23 of them, Roscosmos included, are not on any sanctions list of the coalition countries.
The Kyiv Independent reports that the list was published on HUR's War&Sanctions portal and covers entities producing satellites, ground infrastructure and user terminals. The lead developer is Bureau 1440, part of IKS Holding. Launch vehicles and orbital insertion fall to Roscosmos and other aerospace companies, while integration into military communications sits with the Russian Ministry of Defence. HUR named state bank VTB as an investor. Bureau 1440 had said it launched its first 16 satellites on 23 March and a second batch on 20 July. HUR called for all the entities to be blacklisted.
Euromaidan Press says 32 satellites had been launched by the end of August, but ISW data show only the 12 from the first batch are at a sustainable altitude. Ukrainian communications expert Serhiy Beskrestnov said in May that stable communications would require 200–250 satellites. The HUR portal puts the threshold for fitting terminals to Iskander-M command vehicles at 292 satellites in orbit; a HUR official says 7 more launches are planned by the end of 2026. The context is clear. SpaceX on 1 February cut off grey-market Starlink terminals used by Russian troops, while Ukraine's own Starlink link returned to full speed on 24 October after a 10-day speed cap imposed abroad. The count of 23 unsanctioned entities is HUR's own and could not be independently verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Rassvet is not yet at a scale that could change the battlefield: 12 satellites at sustainable altitude are far below the 200–250 required. What matters is that Russia is investing in a communications layer no foreign company can switch off, and that nearly half of its supply network sits outside sanctions. Kyiv's list is an attempt to steer the next US and EU sanctions round towards the Rassvet supply chain.
Likely effects
- Sanctions agendaUncertain1–6 months
Publishing the 23 unsanctioned entities by name increases pressure on the EU and the UK to target satellite and microelectronics suppliers in their next packages.
- Ukraine's electronic warfare edgeNegative6 months+
If Rassvet reaches scale, Russian drone and command links move to a channel that is hard to jam or shut down.
- BelarusNegative1–6 months
The inclusion of Belarusian entities makes Minsk's role in the satellite communications supply chain a sanctions target.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slow growth continues55%
Launches continue, but by year-end the satellite count remains well below the threshold for military integration.
Watch: Bureau 1440's launch count to the end of 2026 and the number of satellites at sustainable altitude
- 2West widens sanctions30%
The EU or the US adds some of the unsanctioned entities on the list to a new package.
Watch: Bureau 1440 and Roscosmos in the next EU sanctions package and on the OFAC list
- 3Rapid military integration15%
Russia steps up the launch tempo and Rassvet terminals begin to be documented at the front.
Watch: Ukrainian statements on Rassvet terminal use at the front
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Entities in Rassvet▼ 49
- Unsanctioned entities▼ 23
- Terminal threshold (satellites)▲ 292