Russian Finance Ministry presents 2027 draft budget: up to 22% tax on passive income, 22% VAT on cross-border e-commerce; 2026 deficit rises to 3% of GDP

According to The Moscow Times report dated 24 September, the draft introduces a progressive 13–22% scale on passive income currently taxed at 13–15%, affecting some 4 million high earners; military personnel are exempt. It proposes 22% VAT on cross-border online purchases together with a flat customs fee of 100 roubles on parcels below 200 euros, a 35% tax on dividends paid to non-resident accounts, 15% on investment fund gains and 30% on the windfall earnings of mining and metals companies. Meduza reports that the passive income tax will affect at most 6% of taxpayers and that pensions will be raised by 6.8% on 1 February 2027 and by 3.3% on 1 April 2027.

According to The Moscow Times, the ministry projects a deficit of 2% of GDP for 2027 on an oil price assumption of 50 dollars per barrel, while the 2026 deficit is expected to reach 3%, almost double the plan. A Reuters report published on Euronext puts 2027 revenue at 43.3 trillion roubles (509 billion dollars), spending at 48.8 trillion roubles and the deficit at 2.2% of GDP; according to the same report, the 2026 Urals assumption was raised from 59 dollars to 61.2 dollars, the industrial output forecast was cut to −0.2%, the inflation forecast was set at 6.8%, and fixed investment is expected to fall by 5.4%, the sharpest decline since 2015. The 0.2-point gap between the two sources' deficit figures could not be verified.