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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints26 September 2026, Saturday

Yılmaz puts the war's impact on inflation at 7 points, citing CBRT calculations; 10-year yield ended the week higher at 32.77% on 25 September

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said in Elazığ on 26 September that, according to CBRT calculations, the war has had an impact of around 7 points on inflation. The market did not price in this narrative at the 25 September close: the 10-year yield rose to 32.77%, the dollar reached 48.97 lira and Brent 106.07 dollars.

Location: ELAZIĞ

According to a TRT Haber report dated 26 September, Yılmaz said on a television programme he attended in Elazığ that inflation had fallen from around 75% to 31.5%, that according to CBRT calculations the war accounted for around 7 points of this rate, and that dependence on oil imports was putting pressure on prices. In the same interview he recalled the 250 billion lira financing package for manufacturing, the 750 billion lira allocated to technology projects under the HIT-30 programme and the monthly support of 3,500 lira per employee for employers preserving jobs in labour-intensive sectors. At a Bursa business meeting reported by the Dünya newspaper, Yılmaz said that without the war inflation would be in a 23–25% band and around 21–22% at year-end, that core goods inflation stood at 15.9% year on year, and that increases in rent and transport were around 40%; the date of this speech could not be verified on the page.

According to Investing.com data, Türkiye's 10-year benchmark bond yield closed 25 September at 32.770%; this is 0.40% above the 32.640% of 24 September and about 19 basis points above the 32.580% of 18 September. TradingEconomics confirms the 32.77% value for the same day, but the text of the same page also gives 35.61% for 25 September and a daily rise of 2.97 points; this internal contradiction could not be verified and both values are reported. According to BloombergHT's end-of-day summary for 25 September, the BIST 100 closed 0.08% higher at 12,898.13 points, the dollar/lira rose to 48.97 (+0.15%) and the euro/lira to 55.84, while Brent traded at 106.07 dollars.

Yılmaz's decomposition of the war's impact as 7 points attributes part of the stickiness in inflation to the external energy shock; this reading was made at a time when Brent remained high at 106.07 dollars on 25 September. However, the rise of about 19 basis points in the benchmark yield in 1 week shows the market has not yet priced in the 21–22% year-end picture Yılmaz gave for the no-war scenario.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The economic management attributes around 7 points of the stickiness in inflation to the war's energy shock and implies that this share will unwind by itself once the war ends. The market, however, showed on 25 September that it was not buying this optimism, pushing the 10-year yield up to 32.77%. While Brent stays around 106.07 dollars, both the energy bill and the yield curve remain under pressure.

Likely effects

  • Inflation expectationsNegative1–6 months

    Officially separating out the war's share as 7 points is an indirect admission that falling from 31.5% to the 23–25% band of the no-war scenario is hard without lower energy prices; while Brent stays at 106.07 dollars, fuel and transport items keep up the pressure.

  • Borrowing costsNegativeWeeks

    The rise of about 19 basis points in the 10-year yield between 18 and 25 September makes the Treasury's extended-maturity lira borrowing more expensive and narrows the cost advantage of the 250 billion lira manufacturing credit package.

  • Real sectorPositive1–6 months

    The monthly employment support of 3,500 lira per employee and the 750 billion lira in HIT-30 may slow closures in labour-intensive sectors under high financing costs.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    High yields, slow disinflation55%

    Brent stays above 100 dollars, the 10-year yield moves in a 32–33% band and annual inflation resists at around 31.5%.

    Watch: September CPI due in early October and whether the 10-year yield stays above 32.77%

  2. 2
    Energy shock eases30%

    With diplomatic progress on Hormuz, Brent retreats, part of the war share unwinds and extended-maturity yields fall.

    Watch: Brent falling below 100 dollars and the 10-year yield retreating below 32%

  3. 3
    New currency and yield pressure15%

    A funding crisis and the energy bill together push the dollar/lira and yields up faster.

    Watch: The dollar/lira exceeding 49 and the 10-year yield exceeding 33.5%

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Historical context

Türkiye 10-year yield, last 6 months

31.6231.9532.2832.6132.9401/0904/0910/0915/0922/0925/0910 September 2026 — CBRT holds its policy rate at 37%, leaving the door open to tightening against energy-driven risk115 September 2026 — BIST 100 index falls 2.41% as the banking index drops 4.15%224 September 2026 — BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets3
  1. 110/09 · CBRT holds its policy rate at 37%, leaving the door open to tightening against energy-driven risk
  2. 215/09 · BIST 100 index falls 2.41% as the banking index drops 4.15%
  3. 324/09 · BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets

Sources

  1. TRT Haber — Cevdet Yılmaz: the war's impact on inflation is 7 points
  2. Dünya — Key statement from Yılmaz: growth is carried by exports and investment
  3. Investing.com — Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield Historical Data
  4. TradingEconomics — Turkey Government Bond Yield
  5. BloombergHT — Market summary of the day: 25 September 2026