
III Kinetic Conflicts & DefenceMiddle East and North Africa
Arab News columnist urges Gulf defence pact to move beyond declarations
- Institution
- Arab News (opinion)
- Author
- Bashayer Al-Majed
- Country · language
- Saudi Arabia · English
- Affiliation
- Saudi English-language daily
Summary
Writing in Arab News on 3 November, Kuwait University law professor Bashayer Al-Majed argues that Gulf solidarity has not gone beyond declarations. On 18 October, Gulf foreign ministers invoked the joint defence agreement signed in Manama in December 2000, under which an attack on one of the six members counts as an attack on all. A few days later, Houthi attacks threatened the area around Mecca and a ballistic missile was shot down over southern Saudi Arabia.
The author frames the issue in legal terms. Article 51 of the UN Charter recognises collective self-defence, and Article 52 recognises regional arrangements. The International Court of Justice's 1986 Nicaragua ruling requires an armed attack, a declaration by the victim state and a request for assistance. In her view, repeated strikes on civilian airports and energy infrastructure satisfy the first condition; Riyadh, however, has so far relied solely on its own forces and kept the door to diplomacy open.
She proposes solidarity that stops short of sending troops: integrated air defence, intelligence sharing and a joint notification to the UN Security Council under Resolution 2216. The author recalls how the 2017–2021 Qatar crisis froze cooperation, and how Saudi Arabia opened its territory for Kuwait in 1990. For her, the threat in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb affects all six economies, and a pact invoked only in communiqués does not work as a shield.
Blind spot
The piece builds a detailed legal framework but gives no figures on the six members' air defence capacity, its cost or the real authority of the unified command in Riyadh. It leaves open to whom the backing behind the Houthis would legally be attributed, and how this call squares with the Mecca Pact diplomacy being pursued with Iran. The mediating role of Qatar and Oman could also cut against the call for a collective response.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The author's reading holds that the 2000 pact is legally workable but lacks political will. The gap between the 18 October communiqué and the missile attacks that followed shows the Gulf choosing national defence over a collective response. The most likely path is limited solidarity confined to low-cost steps such as joint air defence and a UN notification.
Likely effects
- Energy infrastructureNegativeWeeks
While attacks on airports and energy facilities continue, the six Gulf economies carry the maritime risk in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb as a shared cost.
- DiplomacyUncertain1–6 months
A joint notification to the UN applies pressure without military escalation and keeps open the negotiating channel run through Qatari mediation.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited practical solidarity55%
Gulf states expand air defence and intelligence sharing and submit a joint notification to the UN, but send no troops.
Watch: Saudi Arabia submitting a joint notification to the UN Security Council under Article 51
- 2Stays rhetorical30%
With mediating members holding back, the pact is again invoked only in communiqués and Riyadh responds alone.
Watch: Whether the next Gulf Cooperation Council ministerial communiqué contains a concrete joint defence step
- 3Collective military response15%
A major new attack activates the pact's military arms and the Peninsula Shield Force is mobilised.
Watch: An official announcement on the deployment of the Peninsula Shield Force
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: arabnews.com · 3 November 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.