A former Chinese diplomat argues the WTO's best days are over

Summary

Zhou Xiaoming, a retired deputy permanent representative of China to the UN Office at Geneva, argues in a piece published on 2 October 2026 that the WTO-centred trading system is past its peak. In his view the organisation will not regain the central role it held from 1995 to 2015 for at least 10 years, and a fragmented trade order will become entrenched. Zhou says the countries that wrote the rules are now dismantling them: the US applies Section 301 tariffs to some 60 partners, stretches the national security exception from steel to chip equipment and drones, and has imposed a 25% chip tariff on security grounds.

He also accuses the EU of quietly eroding the system while praising the WTO. Its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism took effect before any international agreement on carbon measurement, countervailing duties were imposed on Chinese electric vehicles without a WTO ruling, and the Foreign Subsidies Regulation grants powers to block tenders and mergers. Zhou explains China's structural disadvantage through Article I of the GATT: any zero tariff Beijing grants Washington must be extended to the other 164 members, while a US operating outside the WTO carries no such obligation. The Appellate Body has been inoperative since late 2019, the Doha Round has been unfinished for about 25 years, and the March 2026 Ministerial Conference failed to agree a joint declaration. Zhou's conclusion is not collapse but 'managed decay', with multilateral rule-making giving way to plurilateral agreements.