The fate of the Development Road hinges on three Kurdish files

Summary

In a brief dated 23 September 2026 for the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Özge Genç and Berkay Mandıracı argue that the Iraqi Development Road is a promising but fragile corridor. The project links the Grand Faw Port in Basra to Türkiye by rail and road, with cost estimates of between 17 and 20 billion dollars. According to the authors, the binding constraint is 3 Kurdish files. These are the dispute over the route between Baghdad and Erbil, the peace process between Ankara and the PKK, and the integration of the SDF into the Syrian state. Damascus and the SDF reached a ceasefire on 30 January 2026. The authors regard joint progress on these 3 files as a necessary condition. The current plan leaves out Duhok and Erbil, and Ankara prefers 1 new border crossing, Ovaköy.

The second constraint is financing. The only major finalised funding mentioned in the brief is the 930 million dollar railway project approved by the World Bank in mid-2025. The 2 commitments from Qatar and the UAE remain largely at the level of memoranda of understanding. The third constraint is politics in Baghdad. The government formed after the November 2025 elections won a vote of confidence on 14 May 2026. However, only 14 of the first 19 ministerial nominees were approved, and defence and interior were left vacant. The authors describe Iran's stance as suspicion rather than consent. They attribute the transport minister's hesitation to sign the agreement dated 28 July 2026 to objections from the Badr Organisation. Their recommendations fall under 3 headings. The first is transparent tendering and a clear division of roles. The second is active diplomacy with Tehran so that the corridor does not look like encirclement. The third is turning commitments into phased, bankable contracts.