Pakistan Today calls the IMF's contraction forecast realistic and urges an export push

In an unsigned editorial on 24 October, Lahore-based Pakistan Today takes up the IMF's October forecasts. The paper says the IMF expects contraction across the region, Pakistan included, because of the war in the Middle East. The picture is bleaker for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which the IMF expects to enter recession after 4 or more consecutive quarters of contraction. The editorial finds the IMF's assumption that the war will run into 2027 reasonable. It also suspects Washington has deferred any move until after the midterm elections, roughly 2 weeks away.

The paper sees 3 risks converging on Pakistan. Inflation is returning through food and energy prices, borrowing costs are rising and external financing is under strain. These pressures could force monetary tightening and push growth into contraction. A weakening of the Gulf economies would also cut workers' remittances and export demand.

The editorial describes the IMF's estimate of Pakistan's financing needs, at 22–25% of GDP, as an overstated defence. Because reforms have made Pakistan a credible borrower, it writes, the IMF may look favourably on a new programme or an extension of the current one. In the paper's view, the IMF imposes unpopular measures such as taxes and electricity tariffs while neglecting export growth, the only way out of the debt trap.