Valdai traces France's crisis to three constraints tightening at once

In a piece published by Valdai on 3 November, Aleksei Chikhachev of St Petersburg State University reads France through the debate over Europe's new sick man. He cites a poll in which 85% of the French see their country in decline and 98% are dissatisfied. At the end of 2025, public debt stood at 115% of GDP and the budget deficit at 5.1%. In the author's view, the deficit has been a chronic problem since the mid-1970s, and unemployment is rising again.

Chikhachev argues that Macron has drifted from a liberal start towards state spending directed at defence and nuclear energy. Society resists both cuts to social spending and tax rises, so the budget cannot be balanced. The National Assembly is split into roughly three equal blocs, none of which holds a relative majority. He describes the Lecornu government as a lame duck expected to last until May; only 16% view Macron's performance favourably.

The author says that in the 2027 election Le Pen has, for the first time, a chance of winning both rounds, and that Mélenchon could also reach the run-off. Because partners see Paris as unpredictable, there is talk of a Greece-style scenario like that of the early 2010s, with Brussels imposing austerity and external oversight. The conclusion is nonetheless not pessimistic: for Chikhachev, France knows how to climb out of deep crises, and an anti-establishment candidate could bring relief.