Moscow seeks to rebuild arms control through joint missile notification with Beijing

Summary

Dmitry Stefanovich is a researcher in the military economics division of IMEMO, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In an article published at the Valdai Club on 28 September 2026, he argues that the trio of Russia, China and the US determines global stability. The article follows a Russian–Chinese conference held by Valdai and East China Normal University on 27 September. According to the author, in the absence of arms control agreements, states plan for the worst case, which accelerates the arms race. Xi Jinping's visit to the US showed that even bilateral bargaining is difficult. The White House statement referred to Russia as a 'concern' and voiced interest in trilateral arms control.

Stefanovich makes two concrete proposals. First, he recalls that China recently notified the US, as a unilateral goodwill gesture, ahead of a submarine-launched ballistic missile test. That notification drew a negative response from the US and its allies at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. On this basis, he proposes that Russia and China build a bilateral or multilateral framework for missile launch notifications. It could also extend to North Korea and to structures such as the SCO and BRICS. Second, citing US debate over placing weapons in space, he calls on the two countries to update their initiative for a treaty on preventing an arms race in outer space. The author writes that US plans to expand its nuclear arsenal and develop regional nuclear forces worry both capitals, and that expert communities should coordinate on the issue.