Tokyo fears a post-midterm squeeze from the US–China thaw

Summary

Kiyoyuki Seguchi is research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) in Tokyo. His article appeared in JBpress on 23 September 2026 and was posted on the CIGS website on 30 September. In it he relays the views of more than 10 former officials and academics he met over 4 days in Washington and Boston from 8 September. One former official told him that US China policy should now be read through the tension between the president and his own cabinet. Most of the cabinet takes a hard line on China. The president, however, wants an image of stability with Beijing before the 3 November midterm elections, because of the cost of living and petrol prices pushed up by the Iran war. The author notes that most of the advanced chip export restrictions inherited from the Biden era remain in place, while some have been eased by presidential decision.

Seguchi cites a Pew survey from March 2026 in which the share of Americans with a favourable view of China rose from 16% in 2024 to 27%. The share with an unfavourable view fell from 81% to 71%. He argues that the real risk begins after the election. If the Republicans suffer heavy losses, congressional pressure could grow. Reciprocal boycotts of the APEC summit hosted by China and the G20 summit hosted by the US could then come onto the agenda. He believes this volatility would hit Japan hardest. Orders from China to Japanese companies for AI and semiconductor parts have risen rapidly this year. He relays a warning that if decoupling pressure cuts off these sales, Japanese firms' competitiveness could decline within 2–3 years. His recommendation is to keep the alliance with the US on security while pursuing an economically open foreign policy in every direction.