MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security23 October 2026, Friday
Treasury says Iran's Kharg terminal is empty, without independent confirmation
US Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed on 22 and 23 October that no crude tankers remain at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil loading terminal. Kpler projects that Iran's crude revenue will fall to zero by mid-December.
Gulf News reports that on the evening of 22 October Bessent posted a video he said showed not a single crude tanker at Kharg Island. On the morning of 23 October he released 1 before-and-after satellite image comparing the terminal crowded with tankers to its state today. Fox News says Bessent wrote the same day that the shadow tanker fleet was exhausted, the main terminal empty and the floating reserve gone. The source for these claims is the Treasury's own imagery; no independent satellite or tanker-tracking analysis has been published.
The claims rest on the combined effect of US sanctions and the blockade. According to Gulf News, CENTCOM said on 22 October, the 100th day of the naval blockade, that at least 25 billion dollars of Iranian crude exports had been stopped. The same day the Treasury designated the law firm Karnakis and Karnakis and several shipping agents linked to Iran's shadow fleet. The move was part of a sanctions campaign called Economic Outcast.
A Kpler projection cited by Fox News says Iran's crude revenue will reach zero by mid-December because of the US blockade. Gulf News reports that Trump claimed on 22 October that more oil was passing through Hormuz than before the war. That claim conflicts with Kpler data cited by Reuters columnist Ron Bousso, which puts Hormuz flows at about 82% of pre-war levels.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Washington is using its own imagery to declare Iran's export capacity fully shut. Until independent confirmation arrives, this should be read as sanctions messaging. If Kpler's projection of zero revenue by mid-December holds, Tehran's cash calendar collides with the early-November election window. The likeliest path is that Kharg stays empty and Iran raises the pressure through the strait and its Gulf neighbours.
Likely effects
- Iran's budgetNegative1–6 months
Crude revenue falling to zero by mid-December could push Tehran to insist harder, in mediation, on lifting the blockade as a precondition.
- Oil supplyNegativeWeeks
With no loadings at Kharg, Iranian barrels drop out of global supply entirely; Gulf neighbours' bypass pipelines are carrying the gap.
- Sanctions complianceUncertain1–6 months
Sanctions aimed at a law firm and shipping agents raise the risk for intermediaries servicing the shadow fleet.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Kharg stays empty60%
The blockade holds, Iran cannot load and revenue falls to zero towards mid-December.
Watch: Kpler or Vortexa recording no new loadings at Kharg
- 2Covert loadings continue25%
Independent tracking shows limited loadings continuing via tankers that switch off their transponders.
Watch: Independent satellite analysis spotting tankers loading at Kharg
- 3Blockade eases15%
Mediation partly lifts the blockade and loadings resume at Kharg.
Watch: A CENTCOM announcement changing the blockade rules
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Crude exports blocked▲ ≥$25bn
- Blockade day (22 Oct)▲ 100
- Hormuz flows (vs pre-war)▼ 82%