MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints30 September 2026, Wednesday
Energy bill widens Türkiye's August trade deficit by 22%
Data released by TÜİK on 30 September show Türkiye's trade deficit widened 22.3% year on year to $5.239 billion in August. The energy import bill rose 33.8% in the same month to $6.464 billion.
According to TÜİK, exports rose 8.1% in August to $23.467 billion, while imports climbed 10.5% to $28.706 billion. Export cover of imports fell from 83.5% a year earlier to 81.7%. Excluding energy and non-monetary gold, the August deficit was only $1.088 billion, with a cover ratio of 95.0%. That gap shows most of the deficit comes from energy and gold.
According to AA, the amount paid for energy imports in August rose from about $4.83 billion a year earlier to $6.464 billion. Crude oil imports fell 1.1% by volume, so the increase came from prices rather than quantities. In January–August the trade deficit rose 9.3% to $65.793 billion. According to Anka, Germany was the largest export market in August at $1.76 billion, and China the largest source of imports at $4.706 billion.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The August data show the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz passing into Türkiye's external balance through prices. Crude volumes fell 1.1%, yet the energy bill rose 33.8%. With the deficit excluding energy and gold at only $1.088 billion, the problem lies in the price of imported energy rather than in export performance.
Likely effects
- Current account and reservesNegative1–6 months
The higher energy bill widens the current account deficit and lifts demand for foreign currency. That adds pressure on CBRT reserves, which have declined for 5 weeks.
- ExportersUncertainWeeks
Export growth of 8.1% shows external demand is holding up for now. But the fall in the cover ratio to 81.7% shows that this growth is not enough to close the gap.
- InflationNegative1–6 months
A growing bill on falling volumes keeps alive the risk that imported energy prices feed into producer costs and from there into consumer prices.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Energy-led widening continues55%
While oil prices stay high, the energy bill keeps widening the deficit in September and October.
Watch: Energy imports in the September trade data due at the end of October
- 2Exports offset30%
European demand stays strong, export growth accelerates and the widening of the deficit slows.
Watch: The monthly trend of exports to Germany and the Export Climate Index
- 3Prices retreat15%
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal, oil prices fall and the energy bill drops quickly.
Watch: Brent futures and Strait of Hormuz transit counts
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- August trade deficit▼ $5.239 billion
- Energy import bill▼ $6.464 billion
- Export cover ratio▼ 81.7%
- Eight-month deficit▼ $65.793 billion