MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints1 October 2026, Thursday
Türkiye ends its sliding-scale fuel tax and phases in petrol levies
A presidential decree in the Official Gazette of 1 October ended the eşel mobil sliding-scale system for fuel. The special consumption tax (ÖTV) on petrol will be 7.90 lira per litre in October, 11.36 lira in November and 14.8277 lira in December.
Eşel mobil was a mechanism that absorbed part of each fuel price rise through cuts to the special consumption tax, keeping pump prices stable. According to a Hürriyet report of 1 October, restoring the petrol tax to its former level in one go would have added about 12.47 lira per litre. The decree spreads that increase over 3 months and will bring the petrol tax back in December to its pre-eşel mobil level of 14.8277 lira. The first step in October is expected to add about 4.15 lira at the pump; some outlets put the figure at 4.27 lira.
According to Hürriyet, the tax on LPG rose from 9.22 lira to 11.38 lira per kilogram, and a pump increase of about 1.48 lira is expected. Haber Ekspres reported the LPG increase as 1.45 lira and the diesel increase as 3.60 lira. The decree came just before September CPI, due on 3 October. In a Bloomberg HT survey of 19 institutions, the median forecast for September is 2.20% month on month and 30.30% year on year. A new tax-driven price step is thus added to inflation in each of October and November.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Rather than turning the end of eşel mobil into a one-off shock, the government spread the 12.47 lira petrol increase over 3 months. This restores tax revenue to the budget while splitting the inflation impact across October, November and December. As a result, a new tax-driven fuel step will enter prices every month until the end of the year.
Likely effects
- InflationNegative1–6 months
Raising the petrol tax to 14.8277 lira in 3 steps will add pressure to the transport component every month from October to December and could slow disinflation.
- Public financesPositive1–6 months
Returning the tax to its pre-eşel mobil level recovers revenue that had been forgone while oil prices were high.
- Households and transportNegativeWeeks
An increase of about 1.48 lira per kilogram for LPG directly raises costs for households and commercial vehicles that run on LPG.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Schedule holds60%
The November and December steps are applied as announced, and pump prices rise along with oil prices.
Watch: The petrol tax rising to 11.36 lira on 1 November
- 2Steps are softened30%
If inflation data overshoot, the government postpones or reduces the November or December step.
Watch: A new presidential decree before November and the 3 October CPI data
- 3Eşel mobil returns10%
If oil prices jump again, the price-stabilising mechanism is reinstated.
Watch: A sharp rise in Brent futures and price announcements from EPDK
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Petrol excise (October)▼ 7.90 lira/litre
- Petrol excise (December)▼ 14.8277 lira/litre
- LPG excise▼ 11.38 lira/kg
- Total deferred petrol increase▼ 12.47 lira