MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt30 September 2026, Wednesday
BIST 100 enters a bear market after losing 5% in two days
The BIST 100 index closed 30 September down 2.79% at 11,947.18 points. The index fell about 21% below its May peak of 15,204.92, crossing the 20% threshold that defines a bear market.
According to AA, the index lost 343.40 points on 30 September and hit an intraday low of 11,926.04. During the session 86 indices fell while only 13 rose, and trading volume was 150.5 billion lira. According to CNBC-e, the index had fallen 2.40% to 12,290.58 points the previous day. The loss over the two sessions of 29–30 September thus reached about 5%.
According to Trading Economics, the index hit an all-time high of 15,204.92 in May and lost 16.65% in September. A bear market is the market term for a decline of 20% or more from a peak. At the centre of the selling is the liquidation of 131 funds. According to Turkish Minute, prosecutors issued detention orders for 34 more suspects on 30 September. The same day, the BDDK transferred the management of 3 investment banks to the TMSF. According to AA, the dollar stood at 49.0175 lira and Brent futures at $98.90 at the close.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
A loss of about 5% in two sessions shows the fund liquidation spreading from individual institutions to the broad index. With 86 indices down and 13 up, the selling is not discriminating between sectors. As institutional transfers and new detentions continue, the liquidation timetable must become clear for pressure to ease in the near term.
Likely effects
- Equity marketNegativeWeeks
A fall of more than 20% from the peak could curb risk appetite among threshold-watching funds and foreign investors, prolonging the selling pressure.
- Household balance sheetsNegative1–6 months
September's 16.65% loss also erodes the wealth of retail investors outside the liquidated funds, which could weaken their propensity to spend.
- Exchange rateUncertainWeeks
The dollar holding flat at around 49 lira shows that equity selling has not yet turned into demand for foreign currency.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Volatile search for a floor50%
As the liquidation timetable becomes clear, selling slows and the index tries to hold around 11,947 points amid volatility.
Watch: An announcement by the SPK and TMSF of an investor payment timetable
- 2Selling deepens35%
New institutional transfers and detentions continue, and the index falls below the intraday low of 11,926.
Watch: Daily closes below 11,926.04
- 3Relief rally15%
Payment steps from the coordination board come faster than expected and the index recovers part of its losses.
Watch: The first payment decision of the Fund Coordination Board
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- BIST 100 close▼ 11,947.18
- Daily change▼ −2.79%
- September change▼ −16.65%
- USD/TRY▲ 49.0175
Historical context
USD/TRY, last 6 months
- 116/09 · BIST 100 fell 5.54% to 13,122.58 points as 17 stocks closed at the floor price
- 217/09 · Diesel passed 100 lira a litre in Türkiye for the first time: a third consecutive increase
- 321/09 · Central government debt stock rose by 422.5 billion lira in August to 15.89 trillion lira; foreign-currency share at 51%
- 421/09 · The dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points
- 521/09 · The 72,825 dwt tanker LR Stephanie is struck in Hormuz and two seafarers wounded; weekend transits fall to 17 ships
- 621/09 · Export producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%
- 723/09 · Dollar hits new high of 48.84 lira on 23 September; calculations show CBRT reserves fell $13.9 billion in 4 weeks to $174.5 billion
- 824/09 · BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets
- 924/09 · CBRT official data: in the week of 18 September gross reserves fell by 4.3 billion dollars to 174.4 billion, net reserves by 6.4 billion to 55.8 billion
- 1025/09 · Türkiye's CDS tops 250 for the first time since 27 May: as the $18 billion liquidation of 131 funds proceeds, Erdoğan says no systemic risk; 45 arrested
- 1126/09 · Yılmaz puts the war's impact on inflation at 7 points, citing CBRT calculations; 10-year yield ended the week higher at 32.77% on 25 September
- 1230/09 · BIST 100 enters a bear market after losing 5% in two days