MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt29 September 2026, Tuesday · 21:01 TRT (UTC+3)
Fitch says fund investigation will not weigh on Türkiye's rating
Fitch Senior Director Douglas Winslow said on 29 September that he does not expect the fund investigation to create systemic or dollarisation risk. Türkiye's rating is BB- with a stable outlook; Fitch forecasts year-end inflation of 30.5% and a dollar exchange rate of 51 lira.
Dünya newspaper reported at 21:01 on 29 September that Winslow described the investigation as a negative development but foresaw no direct pressure on the credit rating. According to Sabah, Winslow said the improvement in reserves has made the economy resilient to external shocks. Fitch's forecasts are as follows: inflation of 30.5% and a dollar rate of 51 lira at the end of 2026, and a rate of 60 lira at the end of 2027. Growth is expected at 3.8% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.
Winslow also said there could be 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of rate cuts by the end of the year. That view sits in tension with market data. According to Investing.com, the 2-year benchmark yield was 37.03% on 29 September, above the 37% policy rate. Türkiye's 5-year CDS stood at 249.98 basis points on 28 September. The same source shows the dollar closing at 49.03 lira on 29 September; Fitch's year-end forecast of 51 lira implies a further rise of about 4%.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Fitch's message is that the fund crisis has not changed the credit rating story. Market pricing is more cautious, however: the 2-year yield is above the policy rate and CDS has pushed up against 250 basis points. Calm on the ratings side may not be enough to relieve domestic market stress in the near term.
Likely effects
- External financingPositive1–6 months
With no change expected in the rating or outlook, the risk of a sudden jump in foreign borrowing costs for the Treasury and banks is limited.
- Rate expectationsUncertainWeeks
Fitch's projection of 150 basis points of cuts contradicts market pricing, in which yields have risen above the policy rate.
- Exchange rateUncertain1–6 months
The year-end forecast of 51 lira, against the 29 September close of 49.03 lira, assumes the policy of gradual real appreciation will continue.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Rating steady, stress temporary60%
Fitch keeps its outlook, and CDS returns below 250 basis points after the board's decisions.
Watch: The daily close of Türkiye's 5Y CDS and the CBRT's weekly reserve data
- 2Prolonged stress30%
Market stress persists, yields stay high and the rate cut is postponed to the end of the year.
Watch: The CBRT's October rate decision and the 2-year benchmark yield
- 3Pressure on the outlook10%
The crisis spreads to banking, and one of the agencies reviews its outlook.
Watch: A statement on Türkiye from Fitch, Moody's or S&P
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Türkiye 5Y CDS (28 Sep)▲ 249.98 bp
- Fitch year-end exchange rate forecast▲ 51 lira
- Fitch rate cut projection▼ 150 bp
Historical context
Türkiye 5-year CDS, last 6 months
Sources
- Dünya — Fitch comments on fund investigation: no systemic risk expected
- Sabah — Critical statement from Fitch Ratings: we expect no risk from the fund investigations
- Investing.com — Turkey CDS 5 Years USD Historical Data
- Investing.com — Turkey 2-Year Bond Yield Historical Data
- Investing.com — USD/TRY Historical Data